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Serie A

Referee: Luca J Pairetto

Roma

U T S S S

0–2

Full-time

Spal

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

63%

38%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

18 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 9

2 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Roma 6. · Spal 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	8	0	0	+13	24
2	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+5	18
3	Inter	8	5	1	2	+6	16
4	Lazio	8	5	0	3	+2	15
5	Sampdoria	8	4	2	2	+8	14
6	Roma	8	4	2	2	+6	14
7	Fiorentina	8	4	1	3	+8	13
8	Sassuolo	8	4	1	3	+1	13
9	Parma	8	4	1	3	+1	13
10	Milan	7	3	3	1	+5	12
11	Torino	8	3	3	2	+0	12
12	Genoa	7	4	0	3	-2	12
13	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-3	9
14	Spal	8	3	0	5	-4	9
15	Udinese	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Bologna	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Atalanta	8	1	3	4	-2	6
18	Empoli	8	1	2	5	-5	5
19	Chievo	8	0	2	6	-13	2
20	Frosinone	8	0	1	7	-18	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+7	12
3	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+7	12
4	Lazio	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Sassuolo	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Genoa	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Roma	4	2	2	0	+6	8
8	Milan	3	2	1	0	+3	7
9	Sampdoria	4	2	1	1	+3	7
10	Parma	4	2	1	1	+2	7
11	Inter	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Cagliari	4	1	3	0	+2	6
13	Spal	4	2	0	2	+0	6
14	Torino	4	2	0	2	-1	6
15	Bologna	4	2	0	2	-1	6
16	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	+2	4
17	Empoli	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Udinese	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Chievo	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Frosinone	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Inter	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Sampdoria	4	2	1	1	+5	7
4	Torino	4	1	3	0	+1	6
5	Roma	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Parma	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Napoli	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Lazio	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	Milan	4	1	2	1	+2	5
10	Udinese	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Genoa	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Spal	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Cagliari	4	1	0	3	-5	3
15	Atalanta	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Fiorentina	4	0	1	3	-3	1
17	Empoli	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Bologna	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Chievo	4	0	1	3	-9	1
20	Frosinone	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.