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Premier League
Referee: Mike Dean
Chelsea
S S U U S
2–2
Full-time
Man United
S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Man United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,2
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
0,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,2
This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 63%
75%
50%
Points per game
2,5
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
63%
75%
Both score Ø 63%
50%
75%
Average goals
2,9
3,4
Scored
2,3
1,6
Conceded
0,6
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,6
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%
21 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 4
7 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Chelsea 2. · Man United 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 8 6 2 0 +18 20
2 Chelsea 8 6 2 0 +13 20
3 Liverpool 8 6 2 0 +12 20
4 Arsenal 8 6 0 2 +9 18
5 Tottenham 8 6 0 2 +8 18
6 Bournemouth 8 5 1 2 +4 16
7 Wolves 8 4 3 1 +3 15
8 Man United 8 4 1 3 -1 13
9 Watford 8 4 1 3 -1 13
10 Leicester 8 4 0 4 +2 12
11 Everton 8 3 3 2 +1 12
12 Burnley 8 2 2 4 -2 8
13 Brighton 8 2 2 4 -4 8
14 Crystal Palace 8 2 1 5 -4 7
15 West Ham 8 2 1 5 -5 7
16 Southampton 8 1 2 5 -8 5
17 Fulham 8 1 2 5 -12 5
18 Huddersfield 8 0 3 5 -13 3
19 Newcastle 8 0 2 6 -7 2
20 Cardiff 8 0 2 6 -13 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Chelsea Man United
13′
🟨 Nemanja Matić
1–0 A. Rüdiger
Willian
21′
27′
🟨 Ashley Young
Antonio Rüdiger 🟨
30′
Eden Hazard 🟨
34′
Half-time 1–1
55′
A. Martial 1–1
67′
🟨 Juan Mata
R. Barkley 🔁
↦ M. Kovačić
69′
Pedro 🔁
↦ Willian
73′
73′
A. Martial 1–2
M. Rashford
75′
🔁 Ander Herrera
↦ Mata
O. Giroud 🔁
↦ Álvaro Morata
79′
84′
🔁 Andreas Pereira
↦ A. Martial
85′
🔁 A. Sánchez
↦ M. Rashford
90′
🟨 Andreas Pereira
90′
🟨 Alexis Sánchez
2–2 R. Barkley
96′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Chelsea

4-3-3
1 Kepa G
30 David Luiz D
28 Azpilicueta D
3 Marcos Alonso D
2 A. Rüdiger D
17 M. Kovačić M
5 Jorginho M
7 N. Kanté M
22 Willian F
10 E. Hazard F
29 Álvaro Morata F
Bench (7)
8 R. Barkley
11 Pedro
18 O. Giroud
4 Fàbregas
13 W. Caballero
21 D. Zappacosta
24 G. Cahill

Coach: M. Sarri

Man United

4-2-3-1
1 David de Gea G
18 A. Young D
12 C. Smalling D
2 V. Lindelöf D
23 L. Shaw D
8 Mata M
31 N. Matić M
6 P. Pogba M
9 R. Lukaku F
11 A. Martial M
10 M. Rashford M
Bench (7)
21 Ander Herrera
15 Andreas Pereira
7 A. Sánchez
3 E. Bailly
17 Fred
22 S. Romero
36 M. Darmian

Coach: José Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Mike Dean · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
16,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.