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Serie A

Referee: Davide Ghersini

Fiorentina

T S S T U

3–0

Full-time

Spal

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

50%

75%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 13%

25%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,3

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

11 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 6. · Spal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Sassuolo	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Spal	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Napoli	4	3	0	1	+0	9
5	Sampdoria	4	2	1	1	+7	7
6	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+5	7
7	Parma	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	Lazio	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Roma	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Udinese	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Torino	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Cagliari	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Inter	4	1	1	2	+1	4
16	Milan	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Chievo	4	0	2	2	-6	2
19	Bologna	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Frosinone	4	0	1	3	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Fiorentina	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Spal	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Sampdoria	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Parma	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+3	3
11	Milan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Empoli	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Roma	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Cagliari	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Inter	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Frosinone	2	0	1	1	-5	1
20	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+4	3
3	Inter	2	1	0	1	+2	3
4	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
5	Parma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Spal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Lazio	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Napoli	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Cagliari	3	1	0	2	-3	3
10	Torino	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Atalanta	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Empoli	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-5	1
19	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Frosinone	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.