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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Tagliavento

Spal

U U U U U

0–3

Full-time

Roma

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,0

2,0

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 37%

15%

58%

Points per game

0,9

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

36%

Both score Ø 50%

58%

42%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

33% Possession 67%

6 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spal 17. · Roma 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	33	27	4	2	+59	85
2	Napoli	33	25	6	2	+47	81
3	Lazio	33	19	7	7	+36	64
4	Roma	33	19	7	7	+25	64
5	Inter	33	17	12	4	+32	63
6	Milan	33	15	9	9	+7	54
7	Atalanta	33	14	10	9	+16	52
8	Fiorentina	33	14	9	10	+10	51
9	Sampdoria	33	15	6	12	+2	51
10	Torino	33	11	14	8	+8	47
11	Bologna	33	11	5	17	-7	38
12	Genoa	33	10	8	15	-7	38
13	Sassuolo	33	8	10	15	-29	34
14	Udinese	33	10	3	20	-12	33
15	Cagliari	33	9	5	19	-26	32
16	Chievo	33	7	10	16	-22	31
17	Spal	33	5	14	14	-22	29
18	Crotone	33	7	7	19	-28	28
19	Verona	33	7	4	22	-39	25
20	Benevento	33	4	2	27	-50	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	14	1	1	+35	43
2	Napoli	17	13	2	2	+24	41
3	Inter	17	11	5	1	+23	38
4	Sampdoria	17	11	3	3	+15	36
5	Roma	17	10	1	6	+9	31
6	Milan	16	8	5	3	+3	29
7	Lazio	16	8	4	4	+21	28
8	Torino	17	7	6	4	+11	27
9	Atalanta	16	7	5	4	+9	26
10	Fiorentina	17	7	5	5	+3	26
11	Bologna	17	6	4	7	+1	22
12	Chievo	16	5	6	5	-3	21
13	Crotone	17	5	5	7	-5	20
14	Genoa	16	5	3	8	-4	18
15	Udinese	16	5	2	9	-2	17
16	Spal	16	3	8	5	-8	17
17	Cagliari	16	5	2	9	-12	17
18	Verona	17	5	1	11	-18	16
19	Sassuolo	16	2	7	7	-12	13
20	Benevento	17	4	1	12	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	13	3	1	+24	42
2	Napoli	16	12	4	0	+23	40
3	Lazio	17	11	3	3	+15	36
4	Roma	16	9	6	1	+16	33
5	Atalanta	17	7	5	5	+7	26
6	Inter	16	6	7	3	+9	25
7	Fiorentina	16	7	4	5	+7	25
8	Milan	17	7	4	6	+4	25
9	Sassuolo	17	6	3	8	-17	21
10	Torino	16	4	8	4	-3	20
11	Genoa	17	5	5	7	-3	20
12	Bologna	16	5	1	10	-8	16
13	Udinese	17	5	1	11	-10	16
14	Sampdoria	16	4	3	9	-13	15
15	Cagliari	17	4	3	10	-14	15
16	Spal	17	2	6	9	-14	12
17	Chievo	17	2	4	11	-19	10
18	Verona	16	2	3	11	-21	9
19	Crotone	16	2	2	12	-23	8
20	Benevento	16	0	1	15	-32	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.