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Serie A

Referee: Rosario Abisso

Roma

S S S S U

3–1

Full-time

Spal

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 13/14 matches

Win Ø 46%

77%

14%

Points per game

2,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

46%

36%

Both score Ø 48%

38%

57%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

0,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

77% Possession 23%

37 Shots 3

15 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 12

10 Corners 0

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Roma 4. · Spal 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	2	0	+26	38
2	Inter	14	11	3	0	+18	36
3	Juventus	14	11	1	2	+26	34
4	Roma	13	10	1	2	+15	31
5	Lazio	13	9	2	2	+18	29
6	Sampdoria	13	8	2	3	+9	26
7	Milan	14	6	2	6	+1	20
8	Bologna	14	6	2	6	+0	20
9	Chievo	14	5	5	4	-4	20
10	Atalanta	14	5	4	5	+2	19
11	Torino	14	4	7	3	-2	19
12	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+4	18
13	Cagliari	14	5	0	9	-11	15
14	Udinese	13	4	0	9	-6	12
15	Crotone	14	3	3	8	-16	12
16	Sassuolo	14	3	2	9	-16	11
17	Genoa	14	2	4	8	-8	10
18	Spal	14	2	4	8	-11	10
19	Verona	14	2	3	9	-17	9
20	Benevento	14	0	0	14	-28	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	7	0	1	+17	21
2	Inter	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	Sampdoria	6	6	0	0	+14	18
4	Atalanta	8	5	2	1	+9	17
5	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+14	16
6	Roma	7	5	0	2	+5	15
7	Lazio	6	3	2	1	+8	11
8	Milan	7	3	2	2	+0	11
9	Chievo	7	3	2	2	-1	11
10	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+2	10
11	Torino	6	2	3	1	+3	9
12	Udinese	8	3	0	5	-2	9
13	Cagliari	7	3	0	4	-3	9
14	Bologna	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Spal	7	2	2	3	-2	8
16	Crotone	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Verona	7	1	1	5	-11	4
18	Genoa	7	0	2	5	-7	2
19	Sassuolo	7	0	2	5	-8	2
20	Benevento	7	0	0	7	-15	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Lazio	7	6	0	1	+10	18
3	Inter	7	5	2	0	+8	17
4	Roma	6	5	1	0	+10	16
5	Juventus	6	4	1	1	+9	13
6	Bologna	7	4	0	3	+1	12
7	Torino	8	2	4	2	-5	10
8	Milan	7	3	0	4	+1	9
9	Chievo	7	2	3	2	-3	9
10	Sassuolo	7	3	0	4	-8	9
11	Fiorentina	8	2	2	4	+2	8
12	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Sampdoria	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Cagliari	7	2	0	5	-8	6
15	Verona	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	Crotone	7	1	1	5	-13	4
17	Udinese	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Atalanta	6	0	2	4	-7	2
19	Spal	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Benevento	7	0	0	7	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.