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Serie A
Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Roma
U T U T S
3–1
Full-time
Lazio
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Lazio
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,5
This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%
17 Shots 16
7 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 9
0 Offside 5
11 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Roma 10. · Lazio 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 6 6 0 0 +9 18
2 Napoli 6 5 0 1 +5 15
3 Sassuolo 6 4 1 1 +6 13
4 Lazio 6 4 0 2 +3 12
5 Fiorentina 6 3 1 2 +7 10
6 Inter 6 3 1 2 +3 10
7 Genoa 5 3 0 2 -1 9
8 Spal 6 3 0 3 -2 9
9 Sampdoria 6 2 2 2 +6 8
10 Roma 6 2 2 2 +2 8
11 Udinese 6 2 2 2 +1 8
12 Parma 6 2 1 3 -2 7
13 Atalanta 6 1 3 2 +1 6
14 Milan 5 1 3 1 +0 6
15 Torino 6 1 3 2 -2 6
16 Cagliari 6 1 3 2 -3 6
17 Empoli 6 1 2 3 -2 5
18 Bologna 6 1 1 4 -5 4
19 Chievo 6 0 2 4 -10 2
20 Frosinone 6 0 1 5 -16 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Roma Lazio
Lorenzo Pellegrini 🔁
↦ J. Pastore
37′
1–0 Lorenzo Pellegrini
45′
Half-time 1–0
53′
🔁 J. Correa
↦ Luis Alberto
54′
🔁 M. Badelj
↦ M. Parolo
Robin Olsen 🟨
55′
Edin Džeko 🟨
62′
Lorenzo Pellegrini 🟨
66′
67′
C. Immobile 1–1
70′
🟨 Milan Badelj
2–1 A. Kolarov
71′
B. Cristante 🔁
↦ D. De Rossi
74′
82′
🔁 F. Caicedo
↦ S. Lulić
Juan Jesus 🔁
↦ A. Florenzi
83′
3–1 F. Fazio
Lorenzo Pellegrini
86′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Roma

4-2-3-1
1 R. Olsen G
11 A. Kolarov D
20 F. Fazio D
18 D. Santon D
44 K. Manolas D
16 D. De Rossi M
27 J. Pastore M
42 S. Nzonzi M
24 A. Florenzi D
9 E. Džeko F
92 S. El Shaarawy F
Bench (12)
7 Lorenzo Pellegrini
4 B. Cristante
5 Juan Jesus
17 C. Ünder
2 R. Karsdorp
3 Luca Pellegrini
14 P. Schick
15 Ivan Marcano
22 N. Zaniolo
34 J. Kluivert
63 Daniel Fuzato
83 A. Mirante

Coach: E. Di Francesco

Lazio

3-5-1-1
1 T. Strakosha G
22 M. Cáceres D
33 F. Acerbi D
77 A. Marušić M
3 Luiz Felipe D
6 Lucas Leiva M
19 S. Lulić M
16 M. Parolo M
10 Luis Alberto F
21 S. Milinković-Savić M
17 C. Immobile F
Bench (12)
11 J. Correa
25 M. Badelj
20 F. Caicedo
4 Patric
7 Valon Berisha
13 Wallace
14 R. Durmisi
15 Bastos
23 G. Guerrieri
24 S. Proto
32 D. Cataldi
96 A. Murgia

Coach: S. Inzaghi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Gianluca Rocchi · 67 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,40 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.