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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Aston Villa

S T U U T

1–0

Full-time

Swansea

T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,0

1,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

25%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 63%

92%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 8

13 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 15. · Swansea 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	13	7	4	2	+9	25
2	Sheffield United	12	8	1	3	+8	25
3	West Brom	12	7	3	2	+14	24
4	Blackburn	13	5	6	2	+0	21
5	Leeds	12	5	5	2	+9	20
6	Nott'm Forest	12	4	7	1	+4	19
7	Sheffield Weds	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Brentford	12	4	6	2	+6	18
9	Derby	11	5	3	3	+5	18
10	Norwich	12	5	3	4	+0	18
11	Swansea	12	4	5	3	+3	17
12	Wigan	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Bristol City	12	4	4	4	+2	16
14	Stoke	12	4	4	4	-1	16
15	Aston Villa	12	3	6	3	+0	15
16	Bolton	12	4	3	5	-5	15
17	Birmingham	12	2	8	2	+1	14
18	QPR	12	4	2	6	-10	14
19	Rotherham	12	3	2	7	-10	11
20	Millwall	12	2	4	6	-6	10
21	Reading	12	2	3	7	-5	9
22	Preston	12	2	3	7	-6	9
23	Ipswich	12	1	6	5	-7	9
24	Hull	12	2	2	8	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	6	5	0	1	+13	15
2	Brentford	6	4	2	0	+9	14
3	Wigan	6	4	2	0	+4	14
4	Sheffield United	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Middlesbrough	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Nott'm Forest	6	3	3	0	+3	12
7	Leeds	6	3	2	1	+6	11
8	Derby	5	3	2	0	+6	11
9	Rotherham	6	3	2	1	+2	11
10	Sheffield Weds	7	2	4	1	+1	10
11	Stoke	6	3	1	2	+1	10
12	Blackburn	7	2	4	1	+0	10
13	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+2	9
14	Norwich	6	3	0	3	-1	9
15	Preston	6	2	2	2	+3	8
16	Birmingham	6	1	5	0	+2	8
17	Swansea	6	2	2	2	+2	8
18	Bristol City	6	2	2	2	+1	8
19	Millwall	6	2	2	2	+0	8
20	QPR	6	2	1	3	-2	7
21	Bolton	6	2	1	3	-3	7
22	Ipswich	6	0	5	1	-2	5
23	Hull	6	1	1	4	-3	4
24	Reading	6	1	0	5	-2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	7	3	3	1	+4	12
2	Sheffield United	6	4	0	2	+3	12
3	Blackburn	6	3	2	1	+0	11
4	Leeds	6	2	3	1	+3	9
5	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	9
6	Norwich	6	2	3	1	+1	9
7	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Sheffield Weds	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Bristol City	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Bolton	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	Nott'm Forest	6	1	4	1	+1	7
12	Derby	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	QPR	6	2	1	3	-8	7
14	Birmingham	6	1	3	2	-1	6
15	Stoke	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Aston Villa	6	1	3	2	-2	6
17	Reading	6	1	3	2	-3	6
18	Brentford	6	0	4	2	-3	4
19	Ipswich	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Hull	6	1	1	4	-6	4
21	Wigan	6	1	0	5	-6	3
22	Millwall	6	0	2	4	-6	2
23	Preston	6	0	1	5	-9	1
24	Rotherham	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.