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Championship

Referee: Oliver Langford

Derby

U S T U U

2–1

Full-time

Sheffield United

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Sheffield United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

This season — Championship · 11/12 matches

Win Ø 56%

45%

67%

Points per game

1,6

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

36%

67%

Both score Ø 53%

55%

50%

Average goals

2,1

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 9

1 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 12. · Sheffield United 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	13	7	4	2	+9	25
2	Sheffield United	12	8	1	3	+8	25
3	West Brom	13	7	3	3	+13	24
4	Norwich	13	6	3	4	+1	21
5	Blackburn	13	5	6	2	+0	21
6	Leeds	12	5	5	2	+9	20
7	Wigan	13	6	2	5	-1	20
8	Nott'm Forest	13	4	7	2	+3	19
9	Bristol City	13	5	4	4	+3	19
10	Sheffield Weds	13	5	4	4	+0	19
11	Brentford	13	4	6	3	+5	18
12	Derby	11	5	3	3	+5	18
13	Aston Villa	13	4	6	3	+1	18
14	Birmingham	13	3	8	2	+2	17
15	Swansea	13	4	5	4	+2	17
16	QPR	13	5	2	6	-8	17
17	Stoke	13	4	4	5	-2	16
18	Bolton	13	4	4	5	-5	16
19	Reading	13	3	3	7	-3	12
20	Rotherham	13	3	3	7	-10	12
21	Preston	13	2	4	7	-6	10
22	Millwall	13	2	4	7	-8	10
23	Hull	13	2	3	8	-9	9
24	Ipswich	13	1	6	6	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wigan	7	5	2	0	+5	17
2	West Brom	6	5	0	1	+13	15
3	Brentford	7	4	2	1	+8	14
4	Sheffield United	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Middlesbrough	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Aston Villa	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Nott'm Forest	7	3	3	1	+2	12
8	Rotherham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
9	Leeds	6	3	2	1	+6	11
10	Derby	5	3	2	0	+6	11
11	Sheffield Weds	7	2	4	1	+1	10
12	Blackburn	7	2	4	1	+0	10
13	Stoke	7	3	1	3	+0	10
14	Norwich	6	3	0	3	-1	9
15	Preston	6	2	2	2	+3	8
16	Birmingham	6	1	5	0	+2	8
17	Swansea	6	2	2	2	+2	8
18	Bristol City	6	2	2	2	+1	8
19	Millwall	6	2	2	2	+0	8
20	QPR	6	2	1	3	-2	7
21	Bolton	6	2	1	3	-3	7
22	Reading	7	2	0	5	+0	6
23	Hull	7	1	2	4	-3	5
24	Ipswich	7	0	5	2	-4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	7	3	3	1	+4	12
2	Sheffield United	6	4	0	2	+3	12
3	Norwich	7	3	3	1	+2	12
4	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+2	11
5	Blackburn	6	3	2	1	+0	11
6	QPR	7	3	1	3	-6	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	+3	9
8	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Birmingham	7	2	3	2	+0	9
10	Swansea	7	2	3	2	+0	9
11	Sheffield Weds	6	3	0	3	-1	9
12	Bolton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
13	Nott'm Forest	6	1	4	1	+1	7
14	Derby	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Stoke	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Aston Villa	6	1	3	2	-2	6
17	Reading	6	1	3	2	-3	6
18	Brentford	6	0	4	2	-3	4
19	Ipswich	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Hull	6	1	1	4	-6	4
21	Wigan	6	1	0	5	-6	3
22	Millwall	7	0	2	5	-8	2
23	Preston	7	0	2	5	-9	2
24	Rotherham	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.