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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni

Fiorentina

S S U T T

3–0

Full-time

Napoli

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 59%

41%

76%

Points per game

1,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,1

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

29 Shots 4

10 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

2 Corners 3

5 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fiorentina 9. · Napoli 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	35	28	4	3	+59	88
2	Napoli	34	26	6	2	+48	84
3	Roma	35	21	7	7	+31	70
4	Lazio	34	20	7	7	+40	67
5	Inter	35	18	12	5	+32	66
6	Atalanta	35	16	10	9	+19	58
7	Milan	35	16	9	10	+7	57
8	Sampdoria	35	16	6	13	+1	54
9	Fiorentina	34	14	9	11	+9	51
10	Torino	34	11	14	9	+7	47
11	Genoa	35	11	8	16	-7	41
12	Bologna	35	11	6	18	-8	39
13	Sassuolo	35	9	10	16	-31	37
14	Udinese	35	10	4	21	-13	34
15	Crotone	35	9	7	19	-24	34
16	Cagliari	35	9	6	20	-29	33
17	Spal	35	6	14	15	-23	32
18	Chievo	35	7	10	18	-26	31
19	Verona	35	7	4	24	-43	25
20	Benevento	35	5	3	27	-49	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	14	1	2	+34	43
2	Napoli	17	13	2	2	+24	41
3	Sampdoria	18	12	3	3	+18	39
4	Inter	18	11	5	2	+22	38
5	Roma	18	11	1	6	+12	34
6	Atalanta	18	9	5	4	+12	32
7	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+25	31
8	Milan	17	8	5	4	+2	29
9	Torino	17	7	6	4	+11	27
10	Fiorentina	17	7	5	5	+3	26
11	Crotone	18	6	5	7	-2	23
12	Bologna	18	6	4	8	+0	22
13	Genoa	17	6	3	8	-2	21
14	Chievo	17	5	6	6	-4	21
15	Cagliari	17	5	3	9	-12	18
16	Udinese	17	5	2	10	-3	17
17	Spal	17	3	8	6	-11	17
18	Sassuolo	17	3	7	7	-11	16
19	Verona	18	5	1	12	-20	16
20	Benevento	18	4	2	12	-18	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	14	3	1	+25	45
2	Napoli	17	13	4	0	+24	43
3	Roma	17	10	6	1	+19	36
4	Lazio	17	11	3	3	+15	36
5	Inter	17	7	7	3	+10	28
6	Milan	18	8	4	6	+5	28
7	Atalanta	17	7	5	5	+7	26
8	Fiorentina	17	7	4	6	+6	25
9	Sassuolo	18	6	3	9	-20	21
10	Torino	17	4	8	5	-4	20
11	Genoa	18	5	5	8	-5	20
12	Bologna	17	5	2	10	-8	17
13	Udinese	18	5	2	11	-10	17
14	Spal	18	3	6	9	-12	15
15	Sampdoria	17	4	3	10	-17	15
16	Cagliari	18	4	3	11	-17	15
17	Crotone	17	3	2	12	-22	11
18	Chievo	18	2	4	12	-22	10
19	Verona	17	2	3	12	-23	9
20	Benevento	17	1	1	15	-31	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.