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Serie A
Referee: Paolo Valeri
Napoli
T U S S S
3–2
Full-time
Milan
T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
1,5
2,2
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%
24 Shots 8
8 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 1
3 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 2 2 0 0 +3 6
2 Atalanta 1 1 0 0 +4 3
3 Empoli 1 1 0 0 +2 3
4 Napoli 1 1 0 0 +1 3
5 Roma 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Sassuolo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Spal 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Parma 1 0 1 0 +0 1
9 Udinese 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Chievo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
11 Torino 1 0 0 1 -1 0
12 Inter 1 0 0 1 -1 0
13 Bologna 1 0 0 1 -1 0
14 Cagliari 1 0 0 1 -2 0
15 Lazio 2 0 0 2 -3 0
16 Frosinone 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Apr -18 Milan – Napoli 0–0 18. Nov -17 Napoli – Milan 2–1 21. Jan -17 Milan – Napoli 1–2 27. Aug -16 Napoli – Milan 4–2 22. Feb -16 Napoli – Milan 1–1

Match report

Napoli Milan
15′
⚽ G. Bonaventura 0–1
F. Borini
Lorenzo Insigne 🟨
30′
30′
🟨 Suso
Half-time 0–2
49′
⚽ D. Calabria 0–2
Suso
1–2 P. Zieliński ⚽
José Callejón
53′
58′
🔁 T. Bakayoko
↦ L. Biglia
D. Mertens 🔁
↦ M. Hamšík
63′
66′
🟨 Ricardo Rodríguez
2–2 P. Zieliński ⚽
67′
71′
🔁 D. Laxalt
↦ F. Borini
A. Diawara 🔁
↦ P. Zieliński
72′
S. Luperto 🔁
↦ Mário Rui
73′
3–2 D. Mertens ⚽
Allan
80′
81′
🔁 P. Cutrone
↦ G. Bonaventura
Kalidou Koulibaly 🟨
90′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Napoli

4-3-3
25 D. Ospina G
33 Albiol D
6 Mário Rui D
26 K. Koulibaly D
23 E. Hysaj D
17 M. Hamšík M
5 Allan M
20 P. Zieliński M
7 José Callejón F
24 L. Insigne F
99 A. Milik F
Bench (11)
14 D. Mertens
42 A. Diawara
13 S. Luperto
2 K. Malcuit
9 S. Verdi
11 A. Ounas
19 N. Maksimović
21 V. Chiricheș
22 D. Marfella
27 O. Karnezis
30 M. Rog

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Milan

4-3-3
99 G. Donnarumma G
22 M. Musacchio D
68 R. Rodríguez D
13 A. Romagnoli D
2 D. Calabria D
21 L. Biglia M
5 G. Bonaventura M
79 F. Kessié M
9 G. Higuaín F
11 F. Borini F
8 Suso F
Bench (12)
14 T. Bakayoko
93 D. Laxalt
63 P. Cutrone
4 J. Mauri
7 Samu Castillejo
20 I. Abate
25 Pepe Reina
33 M. Caldara
56 S. Simič
77 A. Halilović
90 A. Donnarumma
16 A. Bertolacci

Coach: G. Gattuso

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Paolo Valeri · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.