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Bundesliga

Referee: Harm Osmers

Mainz

T U T U T

1–2

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,8

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

25%

63%

Points per game

1,1

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

25%

63%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,9

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

34% Possession 66%

6 Shots 23

1 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 9

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 12. · Bayern Munich 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	8	6	2	0	+19	20
2	M'gladbach	9	5	2	2	+8	17
3	Werder Bremen	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Bayern Munich	8	5	1	2	+6	16
5	RB Leipzig	8	4	3	1	+7	15
6	Hertha	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+7	13
8	Freiburg	9	3	3	3	-2	12
9	Hoffenheim	8	3	1	4	+1	10
10	Augsburg	8	2	3	3	+1	9
11	Wolfsburg	8	2	3	3	-3	9
12	Mainz	8	2	3	3	-4	9
13	Leverkusen	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Nurnberg	8	2	2	4	-11	8
15	Hannover	8	1	3	4	-6	6
16	Schalke 04	8	2	0	6	-6	6
17	Stuttgart	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	1	2	5	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	M'gladbach	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	Hertha	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Werder Bremen	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Mainz	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	Freiburg	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	1	1	+8	7
9	Nurnberg	4	2	1	1	+3	7
10	Bayern Munich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Augsburg	4	1	2	1	+2	5
12	Wolfsburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Hannover	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Leverkusen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	-6	4
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Schalke 04	4	1	0	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	3	0	1	+5	9
2	Werder Bremen	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Dortmund	4	2	2	0	+6	8
4	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	+1	6
5	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	-1	6
6	Hertha	4	1	2	1	+0	5
7	M'gladbach	5	1	2	2	-1	5
8	RB Leipzig	4	1	2	1	-2	5
9	Wolfsburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Freiburg	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Leverkusen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Schalke 04	4	1	0	3	-1	3
14	Hannover	5	0	2	3	-6	2
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	0	2	2	-9	2
16	Stuttgart	4	0	1	3	-5	1
17	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Nurnberg	4	0	1	3	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.