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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

Bayern Munich

S S S S T

4–0

Full-time

Mainz

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

75% Possession 25%

28 Shots 11

14 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 9

10 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 6. · Mainz 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hannover	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Hoffenheim	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Bayern Munich	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Hamburg	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Hertha	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	M'gladbach	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Wolfsburg	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Mainz	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Freiburg	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Leverkusen	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Schalke 04	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Hoffenheim	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Hannover	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Augsburg	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	Hertha	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Mainz	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Freiburg	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Leverkusen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Wolfsburg	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+3	4
2	Hannover	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Bayern Munich	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Schalke 04	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Hertha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
16	Leverkusen	2	0	0	2	-4	0
17	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.