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Bundesliga

Referee: Frank Willenborg

Bayern Munich

S S T S U

2–2

Full-time

Mainz

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 52%

72%

31%

Points per game

2,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

55%

59%

Both score Ø 48%

41%

55%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

2,4

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

76% Possession 24%

20 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

14 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

5 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Mainz 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	29	21	6	2	+56	69
2	RB Leipzig	29	19	4	6	+25	61
3	Hoffenheim	30	14	13	3	+25	55
4	Dortmund	29	15	8	6	+29	53
5	Hertha	29	13	4	12	+2	43
6	FC Koln	30	10	11	9	+6	41
7	Freiburg	29	12	5	12	-15	41
8	Werder Bremen	29	11	6	12	-3	39
9	M'gladbach	29	11	6	12	-4	39
10	Ein Frankfurt	29	10	8	11	-4	38
11	Schalke 04	29	10	7	12	+4	37
12	Leverkusen	29	10	6	13	-2	36
13	Wolfsburg	29	9	6	14	-12	33
14	Hamburg	29	9	6	14	-24	33
15	Mainz	29	9	5	15	-10	32
16	Augsburg	29	8	8	13	-18	32
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	29	8	4	17	-19	28
18	Darmstadt	29	5	3	21	-36	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	15	12	1	2	+20	37
2	Bayern Munich	14	11	3	0	+42	36
3	Dortmund	14	11	3	0	+27	36
4	Hoffenheim	15	10	5	0	+20	35
5	Hertha	14	11	1	2	+15	34
6	Schalke 04	15	8	3	4	+14	27
7	FC Koln	15	7	6	2	+9	27
8	Freiburg	14	8	1	5	-4	25
9	M'gladbach	14	7	3	4	+9	24
10	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	6	2	+6	24
11	Hamburg	14	7	3	4	-4	24
12	Werder Bremen	15	7	1	7	+4	22
13	Mainz	15	6	4	5	+3	22
14	Leverkusen	15	5	5	5	+2	20
15	Darmstadt	15	5	3	7	-8	18
16	Wolfsburg	15	5	2	8	-4	17
17	Augsburg	15	4	5	6	-7	17
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	14	4	3	7	-7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	10	3	2	+14	33
2	RB Leipzig	14	7	3	4	+5	24
3	Hoffenheim	15	4	8	3	+5	20
4	Dortmund	15	4	5	6	+2	17
5	Werder Bremen	14	4	5	5	-7	17
6	Leverkusen	14	5	1	8	-4	16
7	Wolfsburg	14	4	4	6	-8	16
8	Freiburg	15	4	4	7	-11	16
9	Augsburg	14	4	3	7	-11	15
10	M'gladbach	15	4	3	8	-13	15
11	FC Koln	15	3	5	7	-3	14
12	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	2	9	-10	14
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	15	4	1	10	-12	13
14	Schalke 04	14	2	4	8	-10	10
15	Mainz	14	3	1	10	-13	10
16	Hertha	15	2	3	10	-13	9
17	Hamburg	15	2	3	10	-20	9
18	Darmstadt	14	0	0	14	-28	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.