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Championship

Referee: Geoff Eltringham

Leeds

U S U T S

1–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

This season — Championship · 13/14 matches

Win Ø 41%

46%

36%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

46%

57%

Both score Ø 59%

54%

64%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

18 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 6. · Nott'm Forest 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	15	9	2	4	+9	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	7	6	2	+9	27
3	Norwich	15	8	3	4	+3	27
4	West Brom	15	7	4	4	+10	25
5	Derby	14	7	4	3	+9	25
6	Leeds	13	6	5	2	+11	23
7	Swansea	15	6	5	4	+6	23
8	Birmingham	15	5	8	2	+5	23
9	QPR	15	7	2	6	-4	23
10	Nott'm Forest	14	5	7	2	+6	22
11	Bristol City	15	6	4	5	+3	22
12	Blackburn	15	5	7	3	-2	22
13	Stoke	15	5	5	5	-1	20
14	Wigan	15	6	2	7	-4	20
15	Sheffield Weds	15	5	4	6	-5	19
16	Brentford	15	4	6	5	+3	18
17	Aston Villa	15	4	6	5	-1	18
18	Millwall	15	4	4	7	-4	16
19	Bolton	15	4	4	7	-9	16
20	Preston	15	3	5	7	-5	14
21	Rotherham	15	3	5	7	-10	14
22	Reading	15	3	3	9	-6	12
23	Hull	15	3	3	9	-9	12
24	Ipswich	15	1	6	8	-14	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	8	5	2	1	+7	17
2	Wigan	7	5	2	0	+5	17
3	West Brom	8	5	1	2	+10	16
4	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	+5	15
5	Norwich	8	5	0	3	+1	15
6	Brentford	7	4	2	1	+8	14
7	Leeds	7	4	2	1	+8	14
8	Derby	6	4	2	0	+7	14
9	Swansea	8	4	2	2	+6	14
10	Birmingham	8	3	5	0	+5	14
11	Millwall	8	4	2	2	+4	14
12	QPR	8	4	1	3	+2	13
13	Preston	8	3	3	2	+4	12
14	Aston Villa	7	3	3	1	+3	12
15	Nott'm Forest	7	3	3	1	+2	12
16	Rotherham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
17	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	11
18	Sheffield Weds	7	2	4	1	+1	10
19	Blackburn	7	2	4	1	+0	10
20	Stoke	7	3	1	3	+0	10
21	Bolton	8	2	1	5	-7	7
22	Reading	7	2	0	5	+0	6
23	Hull	7	1	2	4	-3	5
24	Ipswich	7	0	5	2	-4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	7	3	3	1	+4	12
2	Sheffield United	7	4	0	3	+2	12
3	Norwich	7	3	3	1	+2	12
4	Blackburn	8	3	3	2	-2	12
5	Derby	8	3	2	3	+2	11
6	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Nott'm Forest	7	2	4	1	+4	10
8	Stoke	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	QPR	7	3	1	3	-6	10
10	Leeds	6	2	3	1	+3	9
11	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+0	9
12	Birmingham	7	2	3	2	+0	9
13	Swansea	7	2	3	2	+0	9
14	Bolton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
15	Sheffield Weds	8	3	0	5	-6	9
16	Hull	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Aston Villa	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	Reading	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Brentford	8	0	4	4	-5	4
20	Ipswich	8	1	1	6	-10	4
21	Wigan	8	1	0	7	-9	3
22	Millwall	7	0	2	5	-8	2
23	Preston	7	0	2	5	-9	2
24	Rotherham	8	0	2	6	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.