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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Cardiff

U U T T T

1–2

Full-time

Burnley

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

20 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 19. · Burnley 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	1	0	+18	19
2	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+12	19
3	Chelsea	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Tottenham	7	5	0	2	+7	15
5	Arsenal	7	5	0	2	+5	15
6	Watford	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Leicester	7	4	0	3	+3	12
8	Wolves	7	3	3	1	+2	12
9	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	-1	10
10	Man United	7	3	1	3	-2	10
11	Everton	7	2	3	2	+0	9
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-4	7
14	Brighton	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-8	5
17	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Newcastle	7	0	2	5	-6	2
19	Cardiff	6	0	2	4	-11	2
20	Huddersfield	7	0	2	5	-13	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+8	9
4	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Watford	4	3	0	1	+3	9
6	Wolves	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Everton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+3	6
10	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Man United	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Burnley	3	1	0	2	+0	3
16	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-6	1
19	Huddersfield	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Newcastle	4	0	0	4	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+6	12
2	Liverpool	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Man City	3	2	1	0	+7	7
4	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Crystal Palace	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Man United	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Leicester	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Wolves	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	West Ham	3	1	0	2	-4	3
12	Southampton	4	1	0	3	-4	3
13	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-5	3
14	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Everton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Brighton	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-5	1
19	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.