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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Cardiff

S U T U U

2–3

Full-time

Arsenal

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,3

3,5

Scored

0,5

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

0,7

3,7

Scored

0,0

1,7

Conceded

0,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

27% Possession 73%

14 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 11

1 Blocked shots 2

8 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 9

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 16. · Arsenal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Chelsea	4	4	0	0	+7	12
3	Man City	4	3	1	0	+8	10
4	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Watford	3	3	0	0	+5	9
6	Bournemouth	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Everton	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Leicester	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Southampton	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Fulham	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Man United	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Crystal Palace	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Cardiff	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Huddersfield	4	0	2	2	-8	2
18	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-3	1
19	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	West Ham	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Watford	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Everton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Man United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Wolves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Watford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Everton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-5	1
17	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.