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Premier League
Referee: Jonathan Moss
Burnley
T T U T T
0–2
Full-time
Man United
U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Man United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
0,7
0,8
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,7
-0,5
This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,7
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
2,3
2,3
Goal diff per game
-1,3
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

46% Possession 54%
9 Shots 21
2 Shots on target 9
1 Blocked shots 6
7 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 5
1 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Burnley 19. · Man United 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Liverpool 4 4 0 0 +8 12
2 Chelsea 4 4 0 0 +7 12
3 Man City 4 3 1 0 +8 10
4 Tottenham 3 3 0 0 +6 9
5 Watford 3 3 0 0 +5 9
6 Bournemouth 4 2 1 1 +1 7
7 Everton 4 1 3 0 +1 6
8 Leicester 4 2 0 2 +1 6
9 Arsenal 4 2 0 2 +0 6
10 Wolves 4 1 2 1 -1 5
11 Southampton 4 1 1 2 +0 4
12 Fulham 4 1 1 2 -2 4
13 Brighton 4 1 1 2 -2 4
14 Man United 3 1 0 2 -3 3
15 Crystal Palace 4 1 0 3 -3 3
16 Cardiff 4 0 2 2 -3 2
17 Huddersfield 4 0 2 2 -8 2
18 Newcastle 4 0 1 3 -3 1
19 Burnley 3 0 1 2 -4 1
20 West Ham 4 0 0 4 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burnley Man United
18′
🟨 Alexis Sánchez
27′
R. Lukaku 0–1
A. Sánchez
44′
R. Lukaku 0–2
Half-time 0–2
Dwight McNeil 🟨
52′
S. Vokes 🔁
↦ J. Hendrick
58′
61′
🔁 M. Rashford
↦ A. Sánchez
Phil Bardsley 🟨
71′
71′
🟥 Marcus Rashford
74′
🟨 Romelu Lukaku
74′
🟨 Luke Shaw
76′
🔁 Ander Herrera
↦ J. Lingard
A. Barnes 🔁
↦ D. McNeil
80′
M. Vydra 🔁
↦ C. Wood
84′
92′
🔁 E. Bailly
↦ P. Pogba
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Burnley

4-4-1-1
20 J. Hart G
26 P. Bardsley D
6 B. Mee D
5 J. Tarkowski D
3 C. Taylor D
25 A. Lennon M
4 J. Cork M
18 A. Westwood M
13 J. Hendrick F
11 C. Wood F
31 D. McNeil M
Bench (7)
9 S. Vokes
10 A. Barnes
27 M. Vydra
1 T. Heaton
2 M. Lowton
23 S. Ward
28 K. Long

Coach: S. Dyche

Man United

4-3-3
1 David de Gea G
25 A. Valencia D
12 C. Smalling D
2 V. Lindelöf D
23 L. Shaw D
27 M. Fellaini M
31 N. Matić M
6 P. Pogba M
14 J. Lingard F
7 A. Sánchez F
9 R. Lukaku F
Bench (7)
10 M. Rashford
21 Ander Herrera
3 E. Bailly
11 A. Martial
13 L. Grant
17 Fred
18 A. Young

Coach: José Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Jonathan Moss · 145 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.