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Premier League
Referee: Craig Pawson
Cardiff
S T S U T
0–0
Full-time
Newcastle
T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,0
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,3
This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
0,0
1,0
Conceded
2,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-2,0
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%
12 Shots 12
1 Shots on target 6
5 Blocked shots 5
6 Goalkeeper saves 0
5 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
14 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Cardiff 15. · Newcastle 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Liverpool 1 1 0 0 +4 3
2 Chelsea 1 1 0 0 +3 3
3 Bournemouth 1 1 0 0 +2 3
4 Watford 1 1 0 0 +2 3
5 Man City 1 1 0 0 +2 3
6 Crystal Palace 1 1 0 0 +2 3
7 Tottenham 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Man United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
9 Wolves 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Everton 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Southampton 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Burnley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Newcastle 1 0 0 1 -1 0
14 Leicester 1 0 0 1 -1 0
15 Cardiff 1 0 0 1 -2 0
16 Brighton 1 0 0 1 -2 0
17 Arsenal 1 0 0 1 -2 0
18 Fulham 1 0 0 1 -2 0
19 Huddersfield 1 0 0 1 -3 0
20 West Ham 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cardiff Newcastle
3′
🟨 Matt Ritchie
30′
🟨 Javier Manquillo
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 I. Hayden
↦ Javi Manquillo
Víctor Camarasa 🟨
62′
65′
🔁 Y. Muto
↦ Ayoze Pérez
66′
🟥 Isaac Hayden
70′
🔁 Jacob Murphy
↦ M. Ritchie
B. Reid 🔁
↦ Víctor Camarasa
76′
N. Mendez-Laing 🔁
↦ Josh Murphy
78′
Harry Arter 🟨
80′
C. Paterson 🔁
↦ J. Hoilett
83′
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-3-3
1 N. Etheridge G
5 B. Écuélé Manga D
22 S. Bamba D
4 S. Morrison D
3 J. Bennett D
7 H. Arter M
8 J. Ralls M
11 Josh Murphy F
21 Víctor Camarasa M
33 J. Hoilett F
10 K. Zohorè F
Bench (7)
14 B. Reid
19 N. Mendez-Laing
13 C. Paterson
6 J. Richards
12 A. Smithies
18 G. Cunningham
24 G. Madine

Coach: N. Warnock

Newcastle

4-4-1-1
12 M. Dúbravka G
2 C. Clark D
6 J. Lascelles D
3 P. Dummett D
19 Javi Manquillo D
8 J. Shelvey M
10 M. Diamé M
11 M. Ritchie M
15 Kenedy M
21 Joselu F
17 Ayoze Pérez F
Bench (7)
14 I. Hayden
13 Y. Muto
7 Jacob Murphy
4 Ki Sung-Yeung
9 S. Rondón
18 F. Fernández
26 K. Darlow

Coach: Rafael Benítez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Craig Pawson · 139 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.