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Premier League
Referee: Paul Tierney
Burnley
U U T T U
1–3
Full-time
Watford
U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Watford
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,2
1,5
Scored
0,5
0,7
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,2
This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
0,0
2,0
Scored
0,0
2,0
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%
8 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 2
2 Offside 4
8 Free kicks against 19
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burnley 11. · Watford 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Chelsea 2 2 0 0 +4 6
2 Tottenham 2 2 0 0 +3 6
3 Bournemouth 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 Everton 2 1 1 0 +1 4
5 Liverpool 1 1 0 0 +4 3
6 Watford 1 1 0 0 +2 3
7 Man City 1 1 0 0 +2 3
8 Crystal Palace 1 1 0 0 +2 3
9 Leicester 2 1 0 1 +1 3
10 Man United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
11 Burnley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Southampton 2 0 1 1 -1 1
13 Newcastle 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 Wolves 2 0 1 1 -2 1
15 Cardiff 2 0 1 1 -2 1
16 Brighton 1 0 0 1 -2 0
17 Arsenal 2 0 0 2 -3 0
18 Huddersfield 1 0 0 1 -3 0
19 Fulham 2 0 0 2 -4 0
20 West Ham 2 0 0 2 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burnley Watford
3′
A. Gray 0–1
T. Deeney
1–1 J. Tarkowski
J. Guðmunds­son
6′
41′
🟨 Will Hughes
Half-time 1–2
48′
T. Deeney 1–2
A. Doucouré
51′
W. Hughes 1–3
Stephen Ward 🟨
53′
A. Barnes 🔁
↦ C. Wood
65′
68′
🔁 K. Sema
↦ A. Gray
S. Vokes 🔁
↦ J. Hendrick
70′
C. Taylor 🔁
↦ S. Ward
74′
83′
🔁 Kiko Femenía
↦ W. Hughes
89′
🔁 I. Success
↦ T. Deeney
90′
🟨 Daryl Janmaat
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Burnley

4-4-1-1
20 J. Hart G
23 S. Ward D
2 M. Lowton D
6 B. Mee D
5 J. Tarkowski D
25 A. Lennon M
4 J. Cork M
7 J. Guðmunds­son M
18 A. Westwood M
13 J. Hendrick F
11 C. Wood F
Bench (7)
10 A. Barnes
9 S. Vokes
3 C. Taylor
1 T. Heaton
14 B. Gibson
26 P. Bardsley
28 K. Long

Coach: S. Dyche

Watford

4-2-2-2
26 B. Foster G
25 J. Holebas D
15 C. Cathcart D
27 C. Kabasele D
2 D. Janmaat D
29 E. Capoue M
37 R. Pereyra M
16 A. Doucouré M
19 W. Hughes M
9 T. Deeney F
18 A. Gray F
Bench (7)
12 K. Sema
21 Kiko Femenía
10 I. Success
1 Gomes
5 S. Prödl
6 A. Mariappa
11 A. Masina

Coach: Javi Gracia

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Paul Tierney · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.