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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Chelsea

S S U T S

3–2

Full-time

Arsenal

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

3,0

0,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+3,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

62% Possession 38%

24 Shots 15

11 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 8

5 Corners 1

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 5. · Arsenal 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Everton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Watford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Watford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
12	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.