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Europa League
Referee: Daniel Siebert
Aarhus
S T T T U
1–3
Full-time
Benfica
S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aarhus Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,7
4,8
Scored
1,3
4,0
Conceded
2,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+3,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 1/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
0%
60%
Points per game
0,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 90%
100%
80%
Both score Ø 90%
100%
80%
Average goals
4,0
4,2
Scored
1,0
3,2
Conceded
3,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+2,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

42% Possession 58%
3 Shots on target 8
4 Blocked shots 0
3 Corners 5
0 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

20. Aug -26 Benfica – Aarhus 3–1

Match report

Aarhus Benfica
19′
G. Prestianni 0–1
A. Bah
Mouhammade Camara 🟨
25′
Rasmus Carstensen 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–1
S. Tchamche 🔁
↦ J. Serra
46′
55′
Rafa Silva 0–2
1–2 R. Carstensen
60′
61′
G. Prestianni 1–3
C. Lenglet
M. Knudsen 🔁
↦ K. Arnstad
62′
S. Jorgensen 🔁
↦ M. Anderson
62′
65′
🔁 G. Moreira
↦ G. Sudakov
65′
🔁 A. Schjelderup
↦ Rafa Silva
C. Rosler 🔁
↦ L. Callo
69′
74′
🔁 J. Duran
↦ V. Pavlidis
74′
🔁 D. Lukebakio
↦ G. Prestianni
F. Emmery 🔁
↦ G. Links
83′
83′
🔁 A. Circati
↦ C. Lenglet
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Aarhus

3-5-2
21 M. Hedenstad G
26 J. Andersen D
33 L. Callo D
44 M. Camara D
29 R. Carstensen M
16 J. Jonsson M
10 K. Arnstad M
23 M. Anderson M
11 G. Links M
31 T. Bech F
13 J. Serra F
Bench (12)
1 J. Hansen
42 M. van der Raad
19 E. Kahl
45 C. Storch
14 T. Molgaard
25 C. Rosler
7 M. Solbakken
4 M. Knudsen
39 F. Emmery
8 S. Jorgensen
27 S. Tchamche
28 J. Bogere

Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Benfica

4-1-3-2
24 S. Soares G
6 A. Bah D
44 T. Araujo D
2 C. Lenglet D
26 S. Dahl D
5 E. Barrenechea M
18 L. Barreiro M
10 G. Sudakov M
27 Rafa Silva M
14 V. Pavlidis F
25 G. Prestianni F
Bench (12)
1 A. Trubin
62 J. Neto
3 A. Circati
33 Gabriel Indio
16 Manu Silva
77 G. Moreira
20 R. Rios
13 J. Kaminski
22 J. Duran
72 Anisio
11 D. Lukebakio
21 A. Schjelderup

Coach: Marco Silva

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Daniel Siebert · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.