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League Cup

Referee: A Backhouse

Fulham

T T U S T

3–0

Full-time

AFC Wimbledon

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham AFC Wimbledon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

4,21 xG 0,38

79% Possession 21%

29 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
3	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
4	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
5	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
6	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
7	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
8	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
9	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
10	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
11	Bradford	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
12	Leyton Orient	2	1	1	0	+2	–	4
13	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
14	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
15	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
16	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
17	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
18	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
19	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
20	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
21	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
22	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.7	3
23	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
24	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
25	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
26	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
27	Crewe	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
28	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
29	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
30	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
31	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
32	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
33	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
34	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
35	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
36	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
37	Stevenage	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.3	3
38	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
39	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.5	3
40	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
41	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
42	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
43	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
44	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
45	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
46	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
53	Doncaster	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
54	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
55	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
56	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
57	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
58	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
59	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
69	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
72	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
73	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
77	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
78	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
79	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
80	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
81	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
82	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
2	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
3	Bradford	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
4	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
5	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
6	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
7	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
9	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.7	3
11	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
13	Crewe	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
14	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
17	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
18	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
19	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
20	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
21	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
22	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
23	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
24	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
30	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
31	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
32	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
33	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
34	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
35	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
38	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
39	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
40	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
41	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
42	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
43	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
44	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
45	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
46	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
47	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
48	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
49	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
3	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
4	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
5	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
7	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
10	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
14	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
16	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
17	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
18	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Walsall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
24	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
28	Doncaster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
31	Leyton Orient	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
33	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
34	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
35	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
43	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
44	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
45	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
46	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
47	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
48	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.