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Eredivisie

Referee: Erwin Blank

Nijmegen

S T T S T

2–2

Full-time

Excelsior

S S T S S

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

50%

75%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,3

Scored

2,3

2,5

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,36 xG 1,81

69% Possession 31%

11 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 10. · Excelsior 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	5	5	0	0	+11	+7.1	15
2	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	1	0	+12	+9.1	13
3	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.8	11
4	For Sittard	5	3	1	1	+2	-6.5	10
5	Excelsior	4	3	0	1	+7	+2.0	9
6	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.2	8
7	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.6	7
8	Twente	4	2	1	1	+4	+4.9	7
9	Groningen	5	2	1	2	-1	-1.9	7
10	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	+2	+2.0	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.9	5
12	Heerenveen	5	1	2	2	-2	-2.6	5
13	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.6	4
14	Telstar	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.5	4
15	Utrecht	5	0	2	3	-9	-3.0	2
16	Den Haag	5	0	1	4	-8	-6.2	1
17	Willem II	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.9	1
18	Cambuur	5	0	1	4	-12	-6.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.4	6
2	Go Ahead Eagles	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.9	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.6	4
4	Groningen	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
5	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
6	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	-4.5	3
7	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
8	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
9	Feyenoord	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.6	2
10	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
11	Ajax	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
12	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.9	1
13	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
14	Utrecht	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.9	1
15	Nijmegen	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.5	0
16	Den Haag	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.3	0
17	Zwolle	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0
18	Cambuur	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.5	9
2	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.7	9
3	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.2	9
4	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
5	Excelsior	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.4	6
6	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.0	6
7	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.5	6
8	Twente	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.5	4
9	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
10	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
11	Telstar	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
12	Groningen	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.1	3
13	Heerenveen	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.0	2
14	Go Ahead Eagles	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.1	2
15	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.9	1
16	Cambuur	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
17	Den Haag	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.0	1
18	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Apr -26 Excelsior – Nijmegen 0–2 9. Aug -25 Nijmegen – Excelsior 5–0 6. May -24 Excelsior – Nijmegen 0–3 13. Aug -23 Nijmegen – Excelsior 3–4 19. Feb -23 Excelsior – Nijmegen 0–3

Match report

Nijmegen Excelsior

Jamiro Monteiro 🟨

4′

1–0 Adam Tahaui ⚽

Willum Thor Willumsson

10′

43′

⚽ David Garden 1–1

Irakli Yegoian

Perr Schuurs 🔁

↦ Jamiro Monteiro

45′

Philippe Sandler 🔁

↦ Bram Nuytinck

45′

🔁 Kasey Bos

↦ Simon Janssen

Half-time 1–1

52′

🟨 Lennard Hartjes

Noe Lebreton 🔁

↦ Dennis Geiger

63′

Kevin Kers 🔁

↦ Isak Hansen Aaröen

63′

67′

🔁 Nesto groen

↦ David Garden

67′

🔁 Aymen sliti

↦ Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson

70′

🟨 Rick Meissen

71′

🔁 Valentin Sulzbacher

↦ Eric da Silva Moreira

73′

⚽ Valentin Sulzbacher 1–2

Aymen sliti

81′

🔁 Alireza Jahanbakhsh

↦ Ilano Silva Timas

Clement Bischoff 🔁

↦ Gabriel·Bras

87′

2–2 Noe Lebreton ⚽

Perr Schuurs

92′

Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Nijmegen

3-4-2-1

N. Polster G

T. Storm D

B. Nuytinck D

Gabriel Brás D

Adam Tahaui M

Jamiro Monteiro M

D. Geiger M

A. Thomas M

D. Tadić M

I. Hansen-Aarøen M

W. Willumsson F

Bench (10)

14 K. Sierhuis

38 Joep Geneste

1 G. Crettaz

9 T. Chery

66 Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar

34 Kevin Kers

20 N. Lebreton

99 Clement Bischoff

3 P. Sandler

4 P. Schuurs

Coach: Dick Schreuder

Excelsior

4-3-3

S. van Gassel G

Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira D

C. Widell D

J. Plug D

S. Janssen D

L. Hartjes M

R. Meissen M

I. Yegoian M

I. Silva Timas F

D. Garden F

Á. Þorsteinsson F

Bench (11)

12 K. Bos

24 Giulliano Cairo

9 Mario Domínguez

28 N. Groen

11 A. Jahanbakhsh

23 Y. Finey

7 A. Sliti

18 V. Sulzbacher

22 O. Turay

6 D. van Vianen

16 Celton Biai

Coach: R. den Uil

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

1,61

🔒

Pinnacle 1,66 Betano 1,65 1xBet 1,64 Bet365 1,62 Betfair 1,62 Dafabet 1,62 Superbet 1,61 BetVictor 1,60 Marathonbet 1,59 10Bet 1,57 SBO 1,56 Unibet 1,55 William Hill 1,55

U ✓

4,12

🔒

Dafabet 4,50 Superbet 4,45 Unibet 4,40 Betano 4,35 BetVictor 4,33 10Bet 4,30 1xBet 4,22 Betfair 4,20 Pinnacle 4,19 SBO 4,11 Bet365 4,10 Marathonbet 4,10 William Hill 4,00

4,69

🔒

Betano 5,30 1xBet 5,15 Pinnacle 5,09 10Bet 5,00 Bet365 5,00 Unibet 5,00 Marathonbet 5,00 William Hill 5,00 Dafabet 4,90 Superbet 4,80 Betfair 4,60 BetVictor 4,60 SBO 4,52

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,12

🔒