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Championship

Referee: David Webb

Bolton

S U T T T

2–3

Full-time

West Ham

T S U S S

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton West Ham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

0,7

2,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

0,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 60%

40%

80%

Average goals

2,6

3,6

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,56 xG 2,22

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bolton 22. · West Ham 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	6	3	2	1	+7	+3.3	11
2	Swansea	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.2	11
3	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.4	10
4	QPR	5	3	1	1	+3	+2.0	10
5	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+2	-4.2	10
6	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+2	-1.9	10
7	Charlton	5	3	1	1	-1	-4.4	10
8	Millwall	5	3	0	2	+2	+2.3	9
9	Sheffield United	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.7	9
10	West Ham	5	2	2	1	+4	+0.5	8
11	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.5	8
12	Watford	6	2	2	2	-1	-2.6	8
13	Wrexham	6	1	4	1	+2	+1.4	7
14	Birmingham	5	1	4	0	+1	+0.7	7
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-1	-3.8	7
16	Norwich	5	2	0	3	+0	+0.4	6
17	Portsmouth	5	2	0	3	-1	-0.2	6
18	Blackburn	6	1	2	3	-2	-2.1	5
19	Lincoln	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.4	5
20	Cardiff	6	0	4	2	-3	+3.0	4
21	Derby	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.6	4
22	Bolton	5	1	1	3	-5	-1.1	4
23	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	-0.2	3
24	Preston	6	1	0	5	-6	+2.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	3	3	0	0	+8	+3.9	9
2	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
3	Watford	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.4	7
4	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.2	6
5	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.7	6
6	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.6	6
7	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
8	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
9	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.9	5
10	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
11	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.6	4
12	Sheffield United	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.5	4
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
14	Birmingham	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.0	3
15	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.6	3
16	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
17	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.2	3
18	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
19	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.1	3
20	Preston	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.2	3
21	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.0	2
22	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.9	2
23	Lincoln	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.6	2
24	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.6	7
2	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
3	Swansea	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.0	6
4	Wrexham	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.5	5
5	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.2	5
6	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
7	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
8	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
9	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.8	4
10	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
11	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
12	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
13	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
14	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
15	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
16	West Ham	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
17	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.6	2
18	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.3	1
21	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
22	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.4	1
23	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.6	1
24	Preston	3	0	0	3	-3	+1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bolton West Ham

7′

🟨 Ollie Scarles

13′

⚽ Jarrod Bowen 0–1

1–1 Ethan Erhahon ⚽

18′

2–1 Ruben Rodrigues ⚽

27′

31′

⚽ Konstantinos Mavropanos 2–2

Arne Engels

Half-time 2–2

57′

🔁 Joël Veltman

↦ Kyle Walker-Peters

58′

🔁 Manor Solomon

↦ Edvin Austbö

62′

🟨 Konstantinos Mavropanos

66′

🔁 Joel Piroe

↦ Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus

Thierry Gale 🔁

↦ Samuel Iling

67′

🔁 Lewis Orford

↦ Divine Mukasa

Jayden Nelson 🔁

↦ Kyliane Dong

73′

77′

⚽ Jarrod Bowen 2–3

Joël Veltman

84′

🔁 Felipe Morato

↦ Ollie Scarles

Ryan Hardie 🔁

↦ Sam Dalby

84′

John Mcatee 🔁

↦ Ethan Erhahon

84′

Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Bolton

4-2-3-1

G. Bazunu G

Gaizka Larrazabal D

E. Toal D

C. Forino-Joseph D

M. Conway D

J. Sheehan M

E. Erhahon M

S. Iling-Junior M

Ruben Rodrigues M

K. Dong M

S. Dalby F

Bench (9)

4 X. Simons

26 J. Nelson

45 J. McAtee

17 A. Ito

39 R. Hardie

11 T. Gale

6 B. Davies

1 J. Bonham

9 T. Bair

Coach: S. Schumacher

West Ham

4-4-1-1

M. Hermansen G

K. Walker-Peters D

K. Mavropanos D

M. Kilman D

O. Scarles D

J. Bowen M

A. Engels M

M. Kanté M

E. Austbö M

D. Mukasa M

Pablo F

Bench (9)

34 J. Veltman

10 M. Solomon

9 J. Piroe

61 L. Orford

5 Morato

21 K. Lamadrid

49 F. Herrick

18 A. Boiro

66 J. Ajala

Coach: Nuno Espírito Santo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

5,03

🔒

Betano 5,40 Superbet 5,15 Pinnacle 5,11 Unibet 5,10 Betfair 5,00 Dafabet 5,00 1xBet 4,92 10Bet 4,80 888Sport 4,80 William Hill 4,80 BetVictor 4,75 SBO 4,59 Bet365 4,50 Marathonbet 4,50

4,20

🔒

Dafabet 4,40 Superbet 4,40 Betano 4,35 Pinnacle 4,31 10Bet 4,30 1xBet 4,25 Betfair 4,20 Marathonbet 4,15 Unibet 4,10 BetVictor 4,10 888Sport 4,00 William Hill 4,00 SBO 3,97 Bet365 3,90

B ✓

1,59

🔒

Bet365 1,67 Betano 1,65 BetVictor 1,65 Pinnacle 1,64 Marathonbet 1,64 Dafabet 1,63 888Sport 1,60 William Hill 1,60 10Bet 1,59 1xBet 1,59 SBO 1,58 Superbet 1,58 Unibet 1,57 Betfair 1,57

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,17

🔒

Betano 1,19 Pinnacle 1,18 10Bet 1,17 Bet365 1,17 888Sport 1,17 Superbet 1,17 BetVictor 1,15 Unibet 1,14 Marathonbet 1,14 1xBet 1,13 Betfair 1,13

U1,5

5,00

🔒

Betfair 5,50 Pinnacle 5,15 Superbet 5,15 Unibet 5,10 10Bet 5,00 Bet365 5,00 Betano 4,80 888Sport 4,80 BetVictor 4,80 1xBet 4,55 Marathonbet 4,45

O2,5 ✓

1,54

🔒

Pinnacle 1,58 Bet365 1,57 Betano 1,57 10Bet 1,55 Superbet 1,55 BetVictor 1,55 888Sport 1,53 Unibet 1,52 Marathonbet 1,52 SBO 1,51 1xBet 1,51 Betfair 1,50

U2,5

2,38

🔒

Betfair 2,50 SBO 2,49 Betano 2,47 Pinnacle 2,47 Superbet 2,47 10Bet 2,40 Bet365 2,38 Unibet 2,38 888Sport 2,30 1xBet 2,27 BetVictor 2,25 Marathonbet 2,25

O3,5 ✓

2,38

🔒