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FA Cup
Pagham
T T T T U
2–0
Full-time
Ascot United
S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pagham Ascot United
Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 74%
80%
67%
Both score Ø 72%
60%
83%
Average goals
4,6
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
3,6
1,7
Goal diff per game
-2,6
-0,5
This season — FA Cup · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
1,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
2,0
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Pagham 97. · Ascot United 96.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Redditch United 2 1 1 0 +4 4
2 Swindon Supermarine 2 1 1 0 +2 4
3 Chertsey Town 2 1 1 0 +1 4
4 Bury 1 1 0 0 +8 3
5 Waltham Abbey 1 1 0 0 +7 3
6 Cambridge City 1 1 0 0 +5 3
7 Leek Town 1 1 0 0 +5 3
8 Hendon 1 1 0 0 +4 3
9 United of Manchester 1 1 0 0 +4 3
10 Windsor 1 1 0 0 +4 3
11 Lower Breck 1 1 0 0 +4 3
12 Racing Club Warwick 1 1 0 0 +4 3
13 Chatham Town 1 1 0 0 +4 3
14 Taunton Town 1 1 0 0 +4 3
15 Peterborough Sports 1 1 0 0 +4 3
16 Dulwich Hamlet 1 1 0 0 +4 3
17 Enfield Town 1 1 0 0 +4 3
18 Hungerford Town 1 1 0 0 +4 3
19 Anstey Nomads 1 1 0 0 +4 3
20 Ashton United 1 1 0 0 +3 3
21 Slimbridge 1 1 0 0 +3 3
22 Hanworth Villa 1 1 0 0 +3 3
23 Chichester City 1 1 0 0 +3 3
24 Gorleston 1 1 0 0 +3 3
25 Real Bedford 1 1 0 0 +3 3
26 AFC Rushden & Diamonds 1 1 0 0 +3 3
27 Mulbarton Wanderers 1 1 0 0 +3 3
28 Leatherhead 1 1 0 0 +3 3
29 Uxbridge 1 1 0 0 +3 3
30 Workington 1 1 0 0 +3 3
31 Stafford Rangers 1 1 0 0 +3 3
32 Yate Town 1 1 0 0 +3 3
33 Evesham United 1 1 0 0 +3 3
34 Cirencester Town 1 1 0 0 +3 3
35 Eastbourne Borough 1 1 0 0 +2 3
36 Gainsborough Trinity 1 1 0 0 +2 3
37 Frome Town 1 1 0 0 +2 3
38 Bury Town 1 1 0 0 +2 3
39 Aveley 1 1 0 0 +2 3
40 Tadley Calleva 1 1 0 0 +2 3
41 Woodford Town 1 1 0 0 +2 3
42 Halesowen Town 1 1 0 0 +2 3
43 Rushall Olympic 1 1 0 0 +2 3
44 Snodland 1 1 0 0 +2 3
45 Trafford 1 1 0 0 +2 3
46 Plymouth Parkway 1 1 0 0 +2 3
47 Rylands 1 1 0 0 +2 3
48 Leamington 1 1 0 0 +2 3
49 Harleston Town 1 1 0 0 +2 3
50 Prescot Cables 1 1 0 0 +2 3
51 Witton Albion 1 1 0 0 +2 3
52 Dunston UTS 1 1 0 0 +2 3
53 Sholing 1 1 0 0 +2 3
54 Bromsgrove Sporting 1 1 0 0 +2 3
55 Alvechurch 1 1 0 0 +2 3
56 Stratford Town 1 1 0 0 +2 3
57 Weymouth 1 1 0 0 +2 3
58 SE Dons 1 1 0 0 +2 3
59 Greenwich Borough 1 1 0 0 +1 3
60 Witham Town 1 1 0 0 +1 3
61 Atherton Collieries 1 1 0 0 +1 3
62 Dorchester Town 1 1 0 0 +1 3
63 Thame United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
64 Berkhamsted 1 1 0 0 +1 3
65 Bishop's Cleeve 1 1 0 0 +1 3
66 Coventry United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
67 Quorn 1 1 0 0 +1 3
68 Southall 1 1 0 0 +1 3
69 Sheppey United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
70 AFC Portchester 1 1 0 0 +1 3
71 Hanley Town 1 1 0 0 +1 3
72 Newcastle Town 1 1 0 0 +1 3
73 Hayes & Yeading United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
74 Bradford (Park Avenue) 1 1 0 0 +1 3
75 Tiverton Town 1 1 0 0 +1 3
76 Redcar Athletic 1 1 0 0 +1 3
77 Ossett United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
78 Kingstonian 1 1 0 0 +1 3
79 Hanwell Town 1 1 0 0 +1 3
80 Heaton Stannington 1 1 0 0 +1 3
81 Mickleover Sports 1 1 0 0 +1 3
82 Ramsgate 1 1 0 0 +1 3
83 Redcar Town 1 1 0 0 +1 3
84 Ware 1 0 1 0 +0 1
85 Fakenham Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
86 Wellingborough Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
87 Kettering Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
88 Shildon AFC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
89 Warrington Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
90 Stockton Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
91 Guiseley AFC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
92 Lewes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
93 Cray Wanderers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
94 South Liverpool 1 0 1 0 +0 1
95 Prestwich Heys 1 0 1 0 +0 1
96 Ascot United 1 0 1 0 +0 1
97 Pagham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
98 AFC Emley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Bishop Auckland 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Westfield (Surrey) 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Dartford 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 Faversham Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 Welling United 1 0 1 0 +0 1
104 Crowborough Athletic 1 0 1 0 +0 1
105 Whyteleafe 1 0 1 0 +0 1
106 Yaxley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
107 Buckhurst Hill 1 0 1 0 +0 1
108 Biggleswade Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
109 Hitchin Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
110 Canvey Island 1 0 1 0 +0 1
111 Newmarket 1 0 1 0 +0 1
112 Lancaster City 1 0 1 0 +0 1
113 Tadcaster Albion 1 0 1 0 +0 1
114 Chippenham Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
115 Havant & Wville 1 0 1 0 +0 1
116 Gloucester City 1 0 1 0 +0 1
117 Mangotsfield United 1 0 1 0 +0 1
118 Bourne Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
119 Boldmere St. Michaels 1 0 1 0 +0 1
120 Knowle 1 0 1 0 +0 1
121 Worcester City 1 0 1 0 +0 1
122 North Ferriby 1 0 1 0 +0 1
123 Barton Town Old Boys 1 0 1 0 +0 1
124 Stanway Rovers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
125 Needham Market 1 0 1 0 +0 1
126 Burgess Hill Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
127 Jersey Bulls 1 0 1 0 +0 1
128 Wimborne Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
129 Portishead Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
130 Basingstoke Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
131 AFC Stoneham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
132 Grays Athletic 1 0 1 0 +0 1
133 Leiston 1 0 1 0 +0 1
134 Wingate & Finchley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
135 Felixstowe & Walton Utd 1 0 1 0 +0 1
136 St Albans City 1 0 1 0 +0 1
137 Hashtag United 1 0 1 0 +0 1
138 Concord Rangers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
139 Brentwood Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
140 Banbury United 1 0 1 0 +0 1
141 Exmouth 1 0 1 0 +0 1
142 Carshalton Athletic 2 0 1 1 -1 1
143 Winslow United 2 0 1 1 -2 1
144 Malvern Town 2 0 1 1 -4 1
145 Sittingbourne 1 0 0 1 -1 0
146 Stotfold 1 0 0 1 -1 0
147 Northwich Victoria 1 0 0 1 -1 0
148 Brixham 1 0 0 1 -1 0
149 Reading City 1 0 0 1 -1 0
150 Bishop's Stortford 1 0 0 1 -1 0
151 Poole Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
152 Bedworth United 1 0 0 1 -1 0
153 Shepshed Dynamo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
154 Cobham 1 0 0 1 -1 0
155 Redhill 1 0 0 1 -1 0
156 Portland United 1 0 0 1 -1 0
157 Abbey Hulton 1 0 0 1 -1 0
158 Cleethorpes Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
159 Camberley Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
160 Curzon Ashton 1 0 0 1 -1 0
161 St. Blazey 1 0 0 1 -1 0
162 Stocksbridge Park Steels 1 0 0 1 -1 0
163 Pontefract Collieries 1 0 0 1 -1 0
164 Three Bridges 1 0 0 1 -1 0
165 Flackwell Heath 1 0 0 1 -1 0
166 Knaresborough Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
167 Stamford 1 0 0 1 -1 0
168 Bracknell Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
169 Blyth Spartans 1 0 0 1 -1 0
170 Whitehawk 1 0 0 1 -2 0
171 Sherwood Colliery 1 0 0 1 -2 0
172 Falmouth Town 1 0 0 1 -2 0
173 London Lions 1 0 0 1 -2 0
174 Cheshunt 1 0 0 1 -2 0
175 Laverstock & Ford 1 0 0 1 -2 0
176 AFC Dunstable 1 0 0 1 -2 0
177 Basford United 1 0 0 1 -2 0
178 Stourbridge 1 0 0 1 -2 0
179 Margate 1 0 0 1 -2 0
180 Bamber Bridge 1 0 0 1 -2 0
181 Gosport Borough 1 0 0 1 -2 0
182 Hyde United 1 0 0 1 -2 0
183 Ilkeston Town 1 0 0 1 -2 0
184 Romford 1 0 0 1 -2 0
185 Horbury Town 1 0 0 1 -2 0
186 Avro 1 0 0 1 -2 0
187 Vauxhall Motors 1 0 0 1 -2 0
188 Andover New Street 1 0 0 1 -2 0
189 Nuneaton Town 1 0 0 1 -2 0
190 Wolverhampton City 1 0 0 1 -2 0
191 Alfreton Town 1 0 0 1 -2 0
192 Bath City 1 0 0 1 -2 0
193 Erith Town 1 0 0 1 -2 0
194 Whitby Town 1 0 0 1 -3 0
195 Baffins Milton Rovers 1 0 0 1 -3 0
196 Whitstable Town 1 0 0 1 -3 0
197 Broadfields United 1 0 0 1 -3 0
198 Leighton Town 1 0 0 1 -3 0
199 Royston Town 1 0 0 1 -3 0
200 Desborough Town 1 0 0 1 -3 0
201 Cornard United 1 0 0 1 -3 0
202 Croydon Athletic 1 0 0 1 -3 0
203 Haywards Heath Town 1 0 0 1 -3 0
204 Marske United 1 0 0 1 -3 0
205 Northampton ON Chenecks 1 0 0 1 -3 0
206 Devizes Town 1 0 0 1 -3 0
207 Belper Town 1 0 0 1 -3 0
208 Fleetlands 1 0 0 1 -3 0
209 Hullbridge Sports 1 0 0 1 -4 0
210 Garforth Town 1 0 0 1 -4 0
211 Holmesdale 1 0 0 1 -4 0
212 Thornaby 1 0 0 1 -4 0
213 Lye Town 1 0 0 1 -4 0
214 Egham Town 1 0 0 1 -4 0
215 Millbrook 1 0 0 1 -4 0
216 Ipswich Wanderers 1 0 0 1 -4 0
217 East Grinstead Town 1 0 0 1 -4 0
218 Frenford 1 0 0 1 -4 0
219 Wells City 1 0 0 1 -4 0
220 Sileby Rangers 1 0 0 1 -4 0
221 Maldon & Tiptree 1 0 0 1 -5 0
222 Sporting Khalsa 1 0 0 1 -5 0
223 Brantham Athletic 1 0 0 1 -7 0
224 Wythenshawe Amateurs 1 0 0 1 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Sep -26 Ascot United – Pagham 1–1

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.