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Championship

Referee: Lewis Smith

Southampton

S T S U U

3–1

Full-time

Swansea

S U S S U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

100%

17%

Average goals

3,7

1,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,6

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 60%

100%

20%

Average goals

3,4

1,6

Scored

2,2

1,4

Conceded

1,2

0,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,44 xG 1,22

47% Possession 53%

16 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 3

5 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 8. · Swansea 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	5	3	2	0	+6	+1.4	11
2	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.4	10
3	QPR	5	3	1	1	+3	+2.0	10
4	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+2	-4.2	10
5	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+2	-1.9	10
6	Charlton	5	3	1	1	-1	-4.4	10
7	Millwall	5	3	0	2	+2	+2.3	9
8	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+5	+3.1	8
9	West Ham	5	2	2	1	+4	+0.5	8
10	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.5	8
11	Birmingham	5	1	4	0	+1	+0.7	7
12	Wrexham	5	1	3	1	+2	+1.6	6
13	Norwich	5	2	0	3	+0	+0.4	6
14	Stoke	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.7	6
15	Portsmouth	5	2	0	3	-1	-0.2	6
16	Sheffield United	5	1	3	1	-1	-0.5	6
17	Blackburn	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.3	5
18	Watford	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.5	5
19	Lincoln	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.4	5
20	Derby	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.6	4
21	Bolton	5	1	1	3	-5	-1.1	4
22	Cardiff	5	0	3	2	-3	+0.8	3
23	Preston	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.8	3
24	Burnley	5	0	2	3	-6	-0.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
2	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.7	6
3	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.2	6
4	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.7	6
5	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.6	6
6	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
7	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
8	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.9	5
9	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
10	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
11	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.6	4
12	Sheffield United	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.5	4
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
14	Birmingham	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.0	3
15	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
16	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
17	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
18	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.1	3
19	Preston	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.2	3
20	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
21	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.0	2
22	Lincoln	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.6	2
23	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
24	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.6	7
2	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
3	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
4	Wrexham	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.5	5
5	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
6	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
7	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
8	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.8	4
9	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
10	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
11	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
12	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
13	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
14	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
15	West Ham	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
16	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
17	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.6	2
18	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.3	1
21	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.6	1
22	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.6	0
23	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.4	0
24	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

18. Apr -26 Swansea – Southampton 1–2 18. Oct -25 Southampton – Swansea 0–0 12. Jan -25 Southampton – Swansea 3–0 20. Jan -24 Swansea – Southampton 1–3 26. Dec -23 Southampton – Swansea 5–0

Match report

Southampton Swansea

1–0 Finn Azaz ⚽

Flynn Downes

9′

2–0 Cyle Larin ⚽

James Bree

33′

45′

🔁 Ronald Pereira Martins

↦ Joseph Amankwaah Opoku

Half-time 2–1

52′

⚽ Zan Vipotnik 2–1

54′

🟨 Ronald Pereira Martins

63′

🔁 melker widell

↦ Jay Fulton

63′

🔁 Stephen Eustáquio

↦ Elijah Just

70′

🔁 Adam Idah

↦ Zan Vipotnik

Kuryu Matsuki 🔁

↦ Tom Fellows

76′

78′

🔁 Eom Ji-Sung

↦ Moussa Kounfolo Yeo

3–1 Léo Scienza ⚽

Kuryu Matsuki

78′

Divin Mubama 🔁

↦ Cyle Larin

85′

Samuel Edozie 🔁

↦ Léo Scienza

85′

Cameron Bragg 🔁

↦ James Ward-Prowse

92′

Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Southampton

4-2-3-1

Daniel Peretz G

J. Bree D

N. Wood-Gordon D

K. Schlotterbeck D

R. Manning D

F. Downes M

J. Ward-Prowse M

T. Fellows M

F. Azaz M

Léo Scienza M

C. Larin F

Bench (9)

11 L. Dobbin

26 Cameron Bragg

6 Z. Abbott

23 S. Edozie

25 G. Long

27 K. Matsuki

28 D. Mubama

34 Welington

5 J. Stephens

Coach: Tonda Eckert

Swansea

4-2-3-1

L. Vigouroux G

F. Lissah D

B. Cabango D

S. Welsh D

J. Tymon D

J. Fulton M

M. Stamenić M

Joseph Okopu M

E. Just M

M. Yeo M

Z. Vipotnik F

Bench (9)

10 Eom Ji-Sung

46 S. Eustáquio

1 A. Fisher

33 A. Idah

2 J. Key

20 Tiago Parente

35 Ronald

3 J. Seelt

7 M. Widell

Coach: Vítor Matos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

1,82

🔒

Betano 1,88 Dafabet 1,87 Superbet 1,87 888Sport 1,85 Pinnacle 1,85 William Hill 1,85 10Bet 1,84 Unibet 1,84 1xBet 1,82 Bet365 1,80 Betfair 1,80 BetVictor 1,80 Marathonbet 1,80 SBO 1,79

3,75

🔒

Bet365 3,90 Pinnacle 3,86 1xBet 3,80 Dafabet 3,80 BetVictor 3,80 Marathonbet 3,80 Betfair 3,75 Superbet 3,75 Betano 3,70 10Bet 3,65 Unibet 3,60 SBO 3,53 888Sport 3,50 William Hill 3,50

4,03

🔒

Pinnacle 4,26 Betfair 4,20 Dafabet 4,10 BetVictor 4,10 Betano 4,05 Superbet 4,00 10Bet 3,95 Unibet 3,95 Marathonbet 3,94 1xBet 3,92 Bet365 3,90 888Sport 3,90 William Hill 3,90 SBO 3,78

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,22

🔒

10Bet 1,25 Betano 1,25 Pinnacle 1,24 Unibet 1,23 BetVictor 1,23 Bet365 1,22 Superbet 1,22 Betfair 1,20 888Sport 1,20 1xBet 1,18 Marathonbet 1,18

U1,5

4,00

🔒

Bet365 4,33 Superbet 4,30 Pinnacle 4,28 Betfair 4,20 888Sport 4,20 Betano 4,00 10Bet 3,95 1xBet 3,94 Marathonbet 3,92 Unibet 3,85 BetVictor 3,60

O2,5 ✓

1,73

🔒

Unibet 1,76 Betano 1,75 Pinnacle 1,75 10Bet 1,73 Bet365 1,73 SBO 1,71 1xBet 1,71 Superbet 1,71 Marathonbet 1,71 Betfair 1,67 888Sport 1,67 BetVictor 1,66

U2,5

2,04

🔒

Pinnacle 2,16 Betfair 2,15 Superbet 2,15 SBO 2,14 Betano 2,12 10Bet 2,10 1xBet 2,10 Bet365 2,10 888Sport 2,10 Marathonbet 2,10 BetVictor 2,05 Unibet 1,97

O3,5 ✓

2,75

🔒