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League Cup

Referee: C Pawson

Millwall

S S T T S

0–1

Full-time

Newcastle

T U S S U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 2/1 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

1,5

5,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 25

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 10

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 15

2 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 13. · Newcastle 27. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bradford	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.7	7
2	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
3	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
4	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
5	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
6	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
7	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
8	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
9	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
10	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
11	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
12	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
13	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
14	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
15	Leyton Orient	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
16	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
17	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
18	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
19	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
20	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
21	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.8	3
22	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
23	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
24	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
25	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.7	3
26	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
27	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
28	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
29	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
30	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
31	Crewe	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
32	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
33	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
34	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
35	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
36	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
37	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
38	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
39	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
40	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
41	Stevenage	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.3	3
42	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
43	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.5	3
44	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
45	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
55	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
56	Doncaster	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
57	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.8	1
58	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
59	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
60	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
69	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
70	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
71	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
72	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
73	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
77	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
78	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
79	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
80	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
81	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
82	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
83	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
84	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
85	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
86	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
2	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
3	Bradford	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
4	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
5	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
6	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
7	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
8	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
10	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.8	3
11	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.7	3
14	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Crewe	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
18	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
20	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
21	Leyton Orient	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
22	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
23	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
24	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
25	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
34	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
35	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
42	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
43	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
44	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
45	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
46	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
47	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
48	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
49	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
50	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
51	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
52	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
53	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
3	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
4	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
5	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
7	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
10	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
12	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
14	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
16	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
17	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
18	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Walsall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
24	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
25	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Doncaster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
31	Leyton Orient	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
33	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
34	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
35	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
44	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
45	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
46	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
47	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
48	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
49	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
50	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Millwall Newcastle

45′

🔁 Valentino Livramento

↦ Amar Dedić

Half-time 0–0

Yanis Ali Issoufou 🔁

↦ Romain Esse

62′

Taïryk Arconte 🔁

↦ Zakariya Lovelace

62′

66′

🔁 Matias Fernandez-Pardo

↦ Yoane Wissa

66′

🔁 Anthony Elanga

↦ Jacob Murphy

Jenson Metcalfe 🟨

67′

69′

🟨 Jacob Ramsey

81′

⚽ Joe Willock 0–1

Lewis Hall

83′

🔁 Lewis Miley

↦ Jacob Ramsey

Regan Monty Anderson 🔁

↦ Lyndon Dykes

87′

Alfie Massey 🔁

↦ D. Kelly

87′

Tristan Parkes 🔁

↦ Jordi Osei-Tutu

88′

Alfie Massey 🟨

91′

🔁 Sean Steur

↦ Joe Willock

Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Millwall

4-2-3-1

F. Marschall G

J. Osei-Tutu D

C. Taylor D

J. Cooper D

E. Baggott D

D. Kelly M

Jenson Metcalfe M

R. Esse M

C. Neghli M

L. Dykes M

Z. Lovelace F

Bench (9)

7 T. Arconte

35 Y. Issoufou

44 Alfie Massey

55 Tristan Parkes

3 Zak Norton Sturge

51 S. T. Vieira

57 Regan Monty Anderson

41 G. Evans

37 G Beaumont

Coach: A. Neil

Newcastle

4-2-3-1

L. Horníček G

A. Dedić D

F. Schär D

S. Botman D

L. Hall D

Nico González M

J. Ramsey M

J. Murphy M

J. Willock M

H. Barnes M

Y. Wissa F

Bench (9)

17 B. Touré

12 M. Thiaw

14 Sean Steur

1 N. Pope

67 L. Miley

2 T. Livramento

20 M. Fernandez-Pardo

19 A. Elanga

8 A. Bamba

Coach: Matthias Jaissle

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

6,10

🔒

Betano 6,60 1xBet 6,50 BetVictor 6,50 Marathonbet 6,45 Pinnacle 6,36 Dafabet 6,20 Unibet 6,10 Bet365 6,00 Betfair 6,00 Superbet 6,00 10Bet 5,60 888Sport 5,50 William Hill 5,50 SBO 5,13

4,60

🔒

BetVictor 4,75 Dafabet 4,70 Pinnacle 4,66 1xBet 4,65 Betano 4,65 Superbet 4,60 Marathonbet 4,60 Bet365 4,50 Betfair 4,50 Unibet 4,35 10Bet 4,20 888Sport 4,00 William Hill 4,00 SBO 3,89

B ✓

1,49

🔒

10Bet 1,54 Betano 1,52 1xBet 1,50 Dafabet 1,50 Marathonbet 1,50 Pinnacle 1,49 Superbet 1,49 Unibet 1,47 Bet365 1,45 BetVictor 1,45 SBO 1,44 Betfair 1,44 William Hill 1,40 888Sport 1,36

Over/under goals

O1,5

1,18

🔒

Betano 1,21 10Bet 1,20 Superbet 1,20 Pinnacle 1,19 Bet365 1,18 888Sport 1,18 Unibet 1,17 Betfair 1,17 1xBet 1,15 BetVictor 1,15 Marathonbet 1,15

U1,5 ✓

4,60

🔒

Betfair 5,00 Pinnacle 4,82 Unibet 4,75 1xBet 4,60 BetVictor 4,60 Marathonbet 4,60 Superbet 4,55 Bet365 4,50 888Sport 4,50 Betano 4,45 10Bet 4,33

O2,5

1,62

🔒

10Bet 1,65 Betano 1,65 Superbet 1,65 1xBet 1,63 Marathonbet 1,63 Bet365 1,62 Pinnacle 1,62 SBO 1,60 Unibet 1,60 888Sport 1,60 BetVictor 1,58 Betfair 1,57

U2,5 ✓

2,30

🔒

Betfair 2,38 Pinnacle 2,35 1xBet 2,32 Marathonbet 2,32 Betano 2,30 Unibet 2,30 Bet365 2,25 888Sport 2,25 Superbet 2,25 SBO 2,21 10Bet 2,20 BetVictor 2,19

O3,5

2,50

🔒