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League Cup

Referee: E Bell

Bournemouth

U U T U U

4–0

Full-time

Lincoln

T S S U U

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Lincoln

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

68% Possession 32%

36 Shots 2

8 Shots on target 1

13 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 0

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
3	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
4	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
5	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
6	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
7	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
8	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
9	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
10	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
11	Bradford	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
12	Leyton Orient	2	1	1	0	+2	–	4
13	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
14	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
15	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
16	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
17	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
18	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
19	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.8	3
20	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
21	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
22	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
23	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.7	3
24	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
25	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
26	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
27	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
28	Crewe	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
29	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
30	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
31	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
32	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
33	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
34	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
35	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
36	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
37	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
38	Stevenage	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.3	3
39	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
40	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.5	3
41	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
42	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
43	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
44	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
45	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
47	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
53	Doncaster	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
54	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.8	1
55	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
56	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
57	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
58	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
59	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
69	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
70	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
72	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
73	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
74	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
77	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
78	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
79	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
80	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
81	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
82	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
83	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
2	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
3	Bradford	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
4	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
5	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
6	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
7	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
8	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.8	3
9	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.7	3
12	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
14	Crewe	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
18	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
19	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
20	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
21	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
22	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
23	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
24	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
31	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
32	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
33	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
34	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
35	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
39	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
40	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
41	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
42	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
43	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
44	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
45	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
46	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
47	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
48	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
49	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
50	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
3	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
4	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
5	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
7	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
10	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
14	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
16	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
17	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
18	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Walsall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
24	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
28	Doncaster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
31	Leyton Orient	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
33	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
34	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
35	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
43	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
44	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
45	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
46	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
47	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
48	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
49	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bournemouth Lincoln

1–0 Ryan Christie ⚽

Ben Gannon-Doak

7′

27′

🟨 Callum Elder

Justin Kluivert 🟨

41′

Half-time 1–0

48′

🟨 Dom Jefferies

58′

🔁 Robert Nicholas Street

↦ Mikkel Ladefoged

58′

🔁 Andrei Coubiș

↦ Joshua Honohan

Antonio Silva 🟨

61′

Alex Tóth 🔁

↦ Justin Kluivert

62′

67′

🟨 Daniel Oyegoke

2–0 Ryan Christie ⚽

David Brooks

69′

73′

🔁 Ben House

↦ Daniel Oyegoke

73′

🔁 Sonny Bradley

↦ Callum Elder

73′

🔁 Deji Elerewe

↦ Yunus Konak

Daniel Jebbison 🔁

↦ Álvaro Rodríguez

78′

Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha 🔁

↦ David Brooks

78′

Marcus Tavernier 🔁

↦ Ben Gannon-Doak

78′

Juanlu Sánchez 🔁

↦ Antonio Silva

82′

3–0 Ryan Christie ⚽

Bafode Diakite

88′

Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-4-2

M. Di Gregorio G

B. Diakité D

J. Hill D

António Silva D

J. Soler D

B. Doak M

R. Christie M

L. Cook M

J. Kluivert M

Á. Rodríguez F

D. Brooks F

Bench (9)

12 T. Adams

16 M. Tavernier

3 A. Truffert

27 A. Tóth

37 Rayan

8 A. Scott

1 Đ. Petrović

29 D. Jebbison

24 Juanlu Sánchez

Coach: M. Rose

Lincoln

4-4-2

J. Gauci G

D. Oyegoke D

D. Jefferies D

R. Towler D

C. Elder D

C. Ogbene M

T. Bayliss M

Y. Konak M

J. Honohan M

R. Hackett F

M. Ladefoged F

Bench (9)

15 S. Bradley

4 A. Coubiș

18 B. House

19 I. Olaofe

17 R. Street

24 I. Varfolomeev

29 E. Wheatley

25 D. Elerewe

1 G. Wickens

Coach: Chris Cohen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

1,27

🔒

Betano 1,35 Dafabet 1,33 10Bet 1,30 Unibet 1,30 1xBet 1,29 Marathonbet 1,28 Bet365 1,27 Pinnacle 1,27 SBO 1,26 Superbet 1,26 888Sport 1,25 BetVictor 1,25 William Hill 1,25 Betfair 1,22

5,60

🔒

Superbet 6,20 Pinnacle 6,15 1xBet 6,10 Marathonbet 6,10 BetVictor 6,00 Dafabet 5,80 Betano 5,60 Unibet 5,60 Betfair 5,50 888Sport 5,50 William Hill 5,50 Bet365 5,25 10Bet 5,20 SBO 4,94

9,60

🔒

BetVictor 11,00 Marathonbet 10,75 1xBet 10,50 Betfair 10,50 Pinnacle 10,11 Bet365 10,00 Superbet 9,60 Betano 9,25 10Bet 9,20 888Sport 9,00 William Hill 9,00 Dafabet 8,60 Unibet 8,50 SBO 6,76

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,12

🔒

10Bet 1,15 Betano 1,15 888Sport 1,13 Pinnacle 1,13 Superbet 1,13 Bet365 1,12 Unibet 1,12 Betfair 1,10 BetVictor 1,10 1xBet 1,09 Marathonbet 1,09

U1,5

5,75

🔒

Betfair 6,50 Pinnacle 6,02 Bet365 6,00 Unibet 6,00 Superbet 5,90 888Sport 5,75 BetVictor 5,75 Betano 5,50 10Bet 5,25 1xBet 5,25 Marathonbet 5,25

O2,5 ✓

1,43

🔒

Betano 1,50 10Bet 1,48 Superbet 1,45 Bet365 1,44 Unibet 1,43 Pinnacle 1,43 BetVictor 1,42 1xBet 1,41 Marathonbet 1,41 Betfair 1,40 888Sport 1,40

U2,5

2,70

🔒

Betfair 2,88 Pinnacle 2,85 Superbet 2,80 Unibet 2,75 Bet365 2,70 Betano 2,70 888Sport 2,70 1xBet 2,66 Marathonbet 2,66 10Bet 2,62 BetVictor 2,58

O3,5 ✓

2,11

🔒

Betano 2,18 10Bet 2,15 SBO 2,13 Unibet 2,12 Superbet 2,12 1xBet 2,11 Pinnacle 2,11 Marathonbet 2,11 Bet365 2,10 Betfair 2,10 888Sport 2,10 BetVictor 2,02

U3,5

1,72

🔒

1xBet 1,75 Pinnacle 1,75 Marathonbet 1,75 Superbet 1,74 Betfair 1,73 Betano 1,72 Unibet 1,71 BetVictor 1,68 10Bet 1,67 Bet365 1,67 888Sport 1,67 SBO 1,66

Both teams to score

BLS ja

1,75

🔒