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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

AVS

T S T S T

0–0

Full-time

Farense

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AVS Farense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,40 xG 0,42

61% Possession 39%

12 Shots 9

1 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AVS 10. · Farense 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+23	+16.8	21
2	Porto	7	6	0	1	+13	+11.6	18
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
4	Santa Clara	7	5	0	2	+3	+5.3	15
5	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+8	+2.5	14
6	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.9	13
7	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+5	+1.7	12
8	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-2	+2.6	8
9	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.3	8
10	AVS	6	2	1	3	-4	-4.3	7
11	Gil Vicente	7	1	4	2	-5	-3.5	7
12	Rio Ave	7	2	1	4	-7	-6.7	7
13	Estoril	7	1	3	3	-6	-9.3	6
14	Arouca	7	2	0	5	-9	-8.8	6
15	Estrela	7	1	2	4	-5	-6.4	5
16	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.1	5
17	Nacional	7	1	2	4	-8	-1.0	5
18	Farense	6	0	0	6	-11	-9.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.8	12
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+12.4	12
3	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+7	+6.5	9
4	Santa Clara	4	3	0	1	+1	+4.3	9
5	Famalicao	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.1	8
6	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.0	7
7	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.2	7
8	AVS	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.7	7
9	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-1	+1.4	6
10	Gil Vicente	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.6	5
11	Moreirense	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.7	5
12	Casa Pia	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.4	4
13	Estrela	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.9	4
14	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-5	-6.6	4
15	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
16	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
17	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1
18	Farense	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+16	+10.3	12
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.5	7
3	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
5	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
6	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.4	4
7	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
8	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.4	4
9	Casa Pia	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
10	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-4	+1.9	3
11	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.2	3
12	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
13	Nacional	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.6	2
14	Gil Vicente	4	0	2	2	-7	-5.0	2
15	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.5	1
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-4	-5.2	0
17	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.6	0
18	Rio Ave	4	0	0	4	-9	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.