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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

AVS

T S S U T

1–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AVS Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,3

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

1,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

2,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,74 xG 1,61

35% Possession 65%

9 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

6 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AVS 13. · Guimaraes 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+12	+8.1	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+7	+7.1	9
3	Famalicao	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.3	9
4	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.1	6
5	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.3	6
6	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.8	6
7	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.2	6
8	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
9	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.6	4
10	Boavista	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.6	3
11	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.1	3
12	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	-3	-5.1	3
13	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
14	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.2	1
15	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.9	1
16	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.4	1
17	Casa Pia	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.3	0
18	Farense	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+6.7	6
2	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.5	6
3	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
4	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
5	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
6	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
7	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
8	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
9	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
10	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
11	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.4	1
13	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
14	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
15	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.1	0
16	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
17	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.9	0
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+10	+5.6	6
2	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.5	6
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
8	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
9	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
10	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
11	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.6	1
12	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
13	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
14	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
15	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
16	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
17	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.