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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Arsenal

S U U U U

4–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 28%

24%

32%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

52%

44%

Both score Ø 58%

68%

48%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

68% Possession 32%

15 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 11. · Newcastle 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	26	25	1	0	+46	76
2	Man City	25	16	3	6	+36	51
3	Leicester	26	15	5	6	+28	50
4	Chelsea	25	12	5	8	+9	41
5	Tottenham	26	11	7	8	+9	40
6	Sheffield United	26	10	9	7	+4	39
7	Wolves	26	8	12	6	+3	36
8	Everton	26	10	6	10	-4	36
9	Man United	25	9	8	8	+7	35
10	Burnley	26	10	4	12	-9	34
11	Arsenal	25	6	13	6	-2	31
12	Newcastle	25	8	7	10	-12	31
13	Southampton	26	9	4	13	-16	31
14	Crystal Palace	26	7	9	10	-9	30
15	Brighton	26	6	9	11	-7	27
16	Bournemouth	26	7	5	14	-14	26
17	Aston Villa	26	7	4	15	-16	25
18	West Ham	25	6	6	13	-13	24
19	Watford	26	5	9	12	-16	24
20	Norwich	26	4	6	16	-24	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	13	0	0	+26	39
2	Leicester	13	8	3	2	+12	27
3	Man City	12	8	2	2	+19	26
4	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+13	26
5	Everton	13	7	3	3	+4	24
6	Man United	13	6	5	2	+12	23
7	Sheffield United	13	6	2	5	+3	20
8	Newcastle	13	5	5	3	+0	20
9	Burnley	13	6	1	6	-2	19
10	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+4	18
11	Brighton	13	4	6	3	+3	18
12	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+1	18
13	Arsenal	12	4	5	3	+0	17
14	Aston Villa	13	5	2	6	-6	17
15	Crystal Palace	13	4	4	5	-3	16
16	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-4	16
17	Watford	13	3	5	5	-4	14
18	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-5	12
19	Norwich	13	3	3	7	-8	12
20	Southampton	13	3	2	8	-16	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	12	1	0	+20	37
2	Man City	13	8	1	4	+17	25
3	Leicester	13	7	2	4	+16	23
4	Chelsea	13	7	2	4	+5	23
5	Southampton	13	6	2	5	+0	20
6	Sheffield United	13	4	7	2	+1	19
7	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+2	18
8	Burnley	13	4	3	6	-7	15
9	Arsenal	13	2	8	3	-2	14
10	Tottenham	13	3	5	5	-4	14
11	Crystal Palace	13	3	5	5	-6	14
12	Man United	12	3	3	6	-5	12
13	Everton	13	3	3	7	-8	12
14	West Ham	12	3	3	6	-8	12
15	Newcastle	12	3	2	7	-12	11
16	Bournemouth	13	3	1	9	-10	10
17	Watford	13	2	4	7	-12	10
18	Brighton	13	2	3	8	-10	9
19	Aston Villa	13	2	2	9	-10	8
20	Norwich	13	1	3	9	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.