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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Arsenal

S S S U S

2–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 45%

60%

29%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

60%

48%

Both score Ø 61%

73%

48%

Average goals

3,4

2,3

Scored

2,1

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

70% Possession 30%

7 Shots 3

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 5. · Newcastle 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	32	24	7	1	+53	79
2	Man City	31	25	2	4	+60	77
3	Tottenham	31	20	1	10	+24	61
4	Man United	31	18	7	6	+19	61
5	Arsenal	30	18	6	6	+24	60
6	Chelsea	31	18	6	7	+18	60
7	Wolves	31	12	8	11	+0	44
8	Leicester	32	13	5	14	-1	44
9	Everton	32	12	7	13	+3	43
10	Watford	31	12	7	12	-3	43
11	West Ham	32	12	6	14	-7	42
12	Bournemouth	32	11	5	16	-15	38
13	Crystal Palace	31	10	6	15	-3	36
14	Newcastle	31	9	8	14	-9	35
15	Brighton	30	9	6	15	-11	33
16	Southampton	31	8	9	14	-15	33
17	Burnley	32	9	6	17	-22	33
18	Cardiff	31	8	4	19	-31	28
19	Fulham	32	4	5	23	-43	17
20	Huddersfield	32	3	5	24	-41	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	15	0	1	+41	45
2	Liverpool	16	14	2	0	+36	44
3	Arsenal	16	13	2	1	+25	41
4	Chelsea	15	9	5	1	+19	32
5	Man United	15	9	5	1	+11	32
6	Tottenham	14	9	1	4	+12	28
7	West Ham	17	8	3	6	+2	27
8	Bournemouth	16	7	5	4	+7	26
9	Everton	16	7	4	5	+2	25
10	Wolves	15	7	3	5	+3	24
11	Leicester	16	7	2	7	+2	23
12	Watford	14	7	2	5	+0	23
13	Brighton	15	6	4	5	+1	22
14	Newcastle	16	7	1	8	-1	22
15	Burnley	16	6	2	8	-7	20
16	Cardiff	17	6	2	9	-14	20
17	Southampton	15	4	6	5	-3	18
18	Crystal Palace	16	4	4	8	-4	16
19	Fulham	16	4	3	9	-13	15
20	Huddersfield	16	2	2	12	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	10	5	1	+17	35
2	Tottenham	17	11	0	6	+12	33
3	Man City	15	10	2	3	+19	32
4	Man United	16	9	2	5	+8	29
5	Chelsea	16	9	1	6	-1	28
6	Leicester	16	6	3	7	-3	21
7	Crystal Palace	15	6	2	7	+1	20
8	Watford	17	5	5	7	-3	20
9	Wolves	16	5	5	6	-3	20
10	Arsenal	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Everton	16	5	3	8	+1	18
12	West Ham	15	4	3	8	-9	15
13	Southampton	16	4	3	9	-12	15
14	Newcastle	15	2	7	6	-8	13
15	Burnley	16	3	4	9	-15	13
16	Bournemouth	16	4	0	12	-22	12
17	Brighton	15	3	2	10	-12	11
18	Cardiff	14	2	2	10	-17	8
19	Huddersfield	16	1	3	12	-24	6
20	Fulham	16	0	2	14	-30	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.