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Premier League

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Arsenal

S T U U T

2–0

Full-time

Man United

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 33%

25%

40%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

60%

45%

Both score Ø 68%

70%

65%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

48% Possession 52%

10 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

11 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 13. · Man United 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	18	1	0	+33	55
2	Leicester	21	14	3	4	+27	45
3	Man City	21	14	2	5	+32	44
4	Chelsea	21	11	3	7	+7	36
5	Man United	20	8	7	5	+9	31
6	Tottenham	21	8	6	7	+6	30
7	Wolves	21	7	9	5	+3	30
8	Sheffield United	20	7	8	5	+4	29
9	Crystal Palace	21	7	7	7	-4	28
10	Everton	21	7	4	10	-8	25
11	Southampton	21	7	4	10	-13	25
12	Newcastle	21	7	4	10	-13	25
13	Arsenal	20	5	9	6	-4	24
14	Brighton	21	6	6	9	-4	24
15	Burnley	21	7	3	11	-10	24
16	West Ham	20	6	4	10	-7	22
17	Aston Villa	21	6	3	12	-10	21
18	Bournemouth	21	5	5	11	-12	20
19	Watford	21	4	7	10	-17	19
20	Norwich	21	3	5	13	-19	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	10	0	0	+18	30
2	Man City	11	8	1	2	+19	25
3	Leicester	10	7	2	1	+10	23
4	Tottenham	10	6	2	2	+11	20
5	Man United	10	5	4	1	+10	19
6	Everton	10	5	2	3	+1	17
7	Brighton	11	4	4	3	+3	16
8	Wolves	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Newcastle	11	4	4	3	-1	16
10	Crystal Palace	10	4	3	3	+0	15
11	Burnley	11	5	0	6	-3	15
12	Sheffield United	10	4	2	4	+2	14
13	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+1	14
14	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	-1	14
15	Arsenal	10	3	4	3	-2	13
16	Watford	11	3	4	4	-3	13
17	Southampton	11	3	2	6	-14	11
18	West Ham	10	3	1	6	-3	10
19	Bournemouth	10	2	4	4	-4	10
20	Norwich	11	2	3	6	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Leicester	11	7	1	3	+17	22
3	Chelsea	11	7	1	3	+6	22
4	Man City	10	6	1	3	+13	19
5	Sheffield United	10	3	6	1	+2	15
6	Wolves	11	3	5	3	+1	14
7	Southampton	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	Crystal Palace	11	3	4	4	-4	13
9	Man United	10	3	3	4	-1	12
10	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-4	12
11	Arsenal	10	2	5	3	-2	11
12	Tottenham	11	2	4	5	-5	10
13	Bournemouth	11	3	1	7	-8	10
14	Burnley	10	2	3	5	-7	9
15	Newcastle	10	3	0	7	-12	9
16	Brighton	10	2	2	6	-7	8
17	Everton	11	2	2	7	-9	8
18	Aston Villa	11	2	1	8	-9	7
19	Watford	10	1	3	6	-14	6
20	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.