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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Rio Ave

U T T T T

3–4

Full-time

Farense

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Farense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

13%

25%

Points per game

0,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

38%

63%

Both score Ø 44%

50%

38%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,91 xG 0,98

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 7

7 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 17. · Farense 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	+9.2	22
2	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+10	+9.3	22
3	Guimaraes	9	6	1	2	+7	+1.8	19
4	Porto	8	6	1	1	+5	+5.2	19
5	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+6	+3.2	17
6	Boavista	8	4	3	1	+5	-2.2	15
7	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+2	-0.7	14
8	Famalicao	8	3	3	2	+0	-2.2	12
9	Portimonense	9	3	2	4	-8	-3.7	11
10	Gil Vicente	9	3	1	5	+3	-3.0	10
11	Casa Pia	9	2	4	3	+0	-0.5	10
12	Estrela	8	2	2	4	-4	-1.7	8
13	Farense	8	2	1	5	+0	-4.0	7
14	Chaves	9	2	1	6	-14	-3.8	7
15	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.0	6
16	Arouca	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.7	6
17	Rio Ave	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.6	5
18	Estoril	9	1	1	7	-6	-2.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+8	+6.7	15
2	Guimaraes	5	4	0	1	+8	+3.6	12
3	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+8	-0.1	10
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+7	+5.0	10
5	Porto	4	3	1	0	+3	+5.5	10
6	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.4	8
7	Farense	5	2	1	2	+3	-1.0	7
8	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+3	+5.1	7
9	Famalicao	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.0	7
10	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-0.6	4
11	Chaves	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.0	4
13	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.2	4
14	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-3	+1.3	4
15	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.2	4
16	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.6	4
17	Estrela	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.5	3
18	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.2	12
2	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+3	-1.9	10
3	Moreirense	5	3	1	1	+3	-0.9	10
4	Porto	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.2	9
5	Casa Pia	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
6	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.7	7
7	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.6	7
8	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.8	7
9	Portimonense	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.1	7
10	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.2	5
11	Estrela	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.3	5
12	Chaves	5	1	0	4	-13	-5.3	3
13	Arouca	4	0	2	2	-2	-2.1	2
14	Vizela	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.0	2
15	Rio Ave	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.9	0
17	Gil Vicente	4	0	0	4	-5	-2.9	0
18	Estoril	5	0	0	5	-6	-1.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.