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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Macedo

Estrela

T U T S S

1–0

Full-time

Famalicao

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

25%

38%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

38%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,58 xG 0,67

61% Possession 39%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 7

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Estrela 13. · Famalicao 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	+9.2	22
2	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+10	+9.3	22
3	Guimaraes	9	6	1	2	+7	+1.8	19
4	Porto	8	6	1	1	+5	+5.2	19
5	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+6	+3.2	17
6	Boavista	8	4	3	1	+5	-2.2	15
7	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+2	-0.7	14
8	Famalicao	8	3	3	2	+0	-2.2	12
9	Portimonense	9	3	2	4	-8	-3.7	11
10	Gil Vicente	9	3	1	5	+3	-3.0	10
11	Farense	9	3	1	5	+1	-4.9	10
12	Casa Pia	9	2	4	3	+0	-0.5	10
13	Estrela	8	2	2	4	-4	-1.7	8
14	Chaves	9	2	1	6	-14	-3.8	7
15	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.0	6
16	Arouca	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.7	6
17	Rio Ave	9	1	2	6	-9	-1.7	5
18	Estoril	9	1	1	7	-6	-2.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+8	+6.7	15
2	Guimaraes	5	4	0	1	+8	+3.6	12
3	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+8	-0.1	10
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+7	+5.0	10
5	Porto	4	3	1	0	+3	+5.5	10
6	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.4	8
7	Farense	5	2	1	2	+3	-1.0	7
8	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+3	+5.1	7
9	Famalicao	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.0	7
10	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-0.6	4
11	Chaves	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.0	4
13	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.2	4
14	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-3	+1.3	4
15	Rio Ave	5	1	1	3	-4	+1.1	4
16	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.6	4
17	Estrela	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.5	3
18	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.2	12
2	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+3	-1.9	10
3	Moreirense	5	3	1	1	+3	-0.9	10
4	Porto	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.2	9
5	Casa Pia	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
6	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.7	7
7	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.6	7
8	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.8	7
9	Portimonense	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.1	7
10	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.2	5
11	Estrela	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.3	5
12	Farense	4	1	0	3	-2	-3.8	3
13	Chaves	5	1	0	4	-13	-5.3	3
14	Arouca	4	0	2	2	-2	-2.1	2
15	Vizela	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.0	2
16	Rio Ave	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
17	Gil Vicente	4	0	0	4	-5	-2.9	0
18	Estoril	5	0	0	5	-6	-1.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.