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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Porto

S S T T S

3–2

Full-time

Estoril

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 50%

74%

26%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

52%

30%

Both score Ø 42%

48%

35%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

63% Possession 37%

12 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

22 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Porto 2. · Estoril 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	23	20	2	1	+45	62
2	Porto	23	17	3	3	+37	54
3	Sp Braga	23	17	1	5	+28	52
4	Sp Lisbon	23	15	2	6	+23	47
5	Guimaraes	23	12	4	7	+2	40
6	Casa Pia	23	10	5	8	-3	35
7	Arouca	23	9	7	7	-5	34
8	Boavista	23	8	6	9	-8	30
9	Vizela	23	8	5	10	+3	29
10	Gil Vicente	23	8	5	10	-4	29
11	Rio Ave	23	7	6	10	-6	27
12	Famalicao	23	8	3	12	-9	27
13	Chaves	23	6	8	9	-9	26
14	Portimonense	23	8	2	13	-11	26
15	Estoril	23	6	4	13	-15	22
16	Maritimo	23	4	4	15	-25	16
17	Santa Clara	23	3	6	14	-18	15
18	Pacos Ferreira	23	3	3	17	-25	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	11	1	0	+28	34
2	Porto	11	9	0	2	+25	27
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	0	2	+22	27
4	Guimaraes	12	8	2	2	+6	26
5	Sp Braga	11	8	1	2	+17	25
6	Arouca	12	7	1	4	+3	22
7	Boavista	12	5	5	2	+0	20
8	Rio Ave	11	6	1	4	+4	19
9	Famalicao	11	6	1	4	+3	19
10	Casa Pia	12	5	3	4	+1	18
11	Portimonense	12	5	2	5	-1	17
12	Gil Vicente	12	4	4	4	+0	16
13	Vizela	11	4	2	5	+3	14
14	Chaves	11	2	5	4	-3	11
15	Maritimo	11	3	2	6	-3	11
16	Estoril	11	3	2	6	-9	11
17	Santa Clara	12	2	4	6	-10	10
18	Pacos Ferreira	12	1	2	9	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+17	28
2	Porto	12	8	3	1	+12	27
3	Sp Braga	12	9	0	3	+11	27
4	Sp Lisbon	12	6	2	4	+1	20
5	Casa Pia	11	5	2	4	-4	17
6	Vizela	12	4	3	5	+0	15
7	Chaves	12	4	3	5	-6	15
8	Guimaraes	11	4	2	5	-4	14
9	Gil Vicente	11	4	1	6	-4	13
10	Arouca	11	2	6	3	-8	12
11	Estoril	12	3	2	7	-6	11
12	Boavista	11	3	1	7	-8	10
13	Portimonense	11	3	0	8	-10	9
14	Rio Ave	12	1	5	6	-10	8
15	Famalicao	12	2	2	8	-12	8
16	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	1	8	-10	7
17	Santa Clara	11	1	2	8	-8	5
18	Maritimo	12	1	2	9	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.