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Premier League

Referee: T Bramall

Leeds

T T S U U

4–1

Full-time

Crystal Palace

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Crystal Palace

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 35%

25%

44%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

69%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

63%

44%

Average goals

3,1

2,2

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,9

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,67 xG 1,56

53% Possession 47%

20 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 17. · Crystal Palace 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	17	12	1	4	+25	+14.3	37
2	Arsenal	16	11	3	2	+20	+17.5	36
3	Aston Villa	16	10	3	3	+8	-4.8	33
4	Chelsea	17	8	5	4	+12	+5.5	29
5	Liverpool	17	9	2	6	+3	+6.3	29
6	Sunderland	17	7	6	4	+2	-7.8	27
7	Crystal Palace	16	7	5	4	+5	+7.9	26
8	Man United	16	7	5	4	+4	+8.8	26
9	Brighton	17	6	6	5	+2	+4.3	24
10	Everton	16	7	3	6	-1	-2.9	24
11	Newcastle	17	6	5	6	+1	+4.9	23
12	Brentford	17	7	2	8	-1	+1.8	23
13	Tottenham	17	6	4	7	+3	-6.6	22
14	Bournemouth	17	5	7	5	-3	+1.2	22
15	Fulham	16	6	2	8	-3	-4.6	20
16	Nott'm Forest	16	5	3	8	-8	-3.1	18
17	Leeds	16	4	4	8	-10	-0.9	16
18	West Ham	17	3	4	10	-16	-11.2	13
19	Burnley	17	3	2	12	-15	-19.7	11
20	Wolves	17	0	2	15	-28	-11.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	9	8	0	1	+19	+11.5	24
2	Arsenal	8	7	1	0	+17	+11.1	22
3	Aston Villa	8	6	1	1	+7	-1.4	19
4	Sunderland	8	5	3	0	+8	-0.9	18
5	Brentford	8	5	2	1	+7	+3.7	17
6	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.0	17
7	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.9	16
8	Bournemouth	9	4	4	1	+5	+6.4	16
9	Liverpool	8	5	1	2	+4	+4.3	16
10	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+5	+4.3	14
11	Man United	8	4	2	2	+4	+9.3	14
12	Everton	8	4	2	2	+2	+1.5	14
13	Fulham	8	4	1	3	+4	+0.2	13
14	Leeds	8	3	3	2	+2	+6.2	12
15	Crystal Palace	8	2	4	2	-1	+6.6	10
16	Nott'm Forest	8	3	1	4	-2	+2.9	10
17	Tottenham	9	2	2	5	+0	-0.4	8
18	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-3	-7.4	7
19	West Ham	8	2	0	6	-10	-3.8	6
20	Wolves	9	0	1	8	-16	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Crystal Palace	8	5	1	2	+6	+1.3	16
2	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+7	+1.2	15
3	Tottenham	8	4	2	2	+3	-6.2	14
4	Arsenal	8	4	2	2	+3	+6.3	14
5	Aston Villa	8	4	2	2	+1	-3.4	14
6	Man City	8	4	1	3	+6	+2.8	13
7	Liverpool	9	4	1	4	-1	+2.0	13
8	Man United	8	3	3	2	+0	-0.5	12
9	Everton	8	3	1	4	-3	-4.3	10
10	Sunderland	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.9	9
11	Brighton	8	2	2	4	-3	+1.4	8
12	Nott'm Forest	8	2	2	4	-6	-6.0	8
13	West Ham	9	1	4	4	-6	-7.4	7
14	Fulham	8	2	1	5	-7	-4.8	7
15	Newcastle	8	1	3	4	-3	-1.1	6
16	Bournemouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-5.2	6
17	Brentford	9	2	0	7	-8	-1.8	6
18	Burnley	9	1	1	7	-12	-12.3	4
19	Leeds	8	1	1	6	-12	-7.1	4
20	Wolves	8	0	1	7	-12	-6.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.