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Serie A

Referee: Simone Sozza

Juventus

S S T S S

2–1

Full-time

Roma

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 57%

47%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 27%

33%

20%

Both score Ø 37%

53%

20%

Average goals

2,2

1,6

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

0,9

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,55 xG 1,44

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 14

9 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

2 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 5. · Roma 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	0	4	+20	+14.0	33
2	Milan	15	9	5	1	+11	+6.0	32
3	Napoli	15	10	1	4	+9	+5.6	31
4	Roma	15	10	0	5	+8	+1.4	30
5	Juventus	15	7	5	3	+5	+7.9	26
6	Bologna	15	7	4	4	+10	+3.4	25
7	Como	15	6	6	3	+7	+4.3	24
8	Lazio	16	6	5	5	+6	-4.0	23
9	Sassuolo	15	6	3	6	+2	-4.9	21
10	Cremonese	16	5	6	5	+0	-6.8	21
11	Udinese	15	6	3	6	-6	-2.2	21
12	Atalanta	15	4	7	4	+1	+6.3	19
13	Torino	15	4	5	6	-11	-5.3	17
14	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-5.9	16
15	Cagliari	15	3	5	7	-6	-8.9	14
16	Genoa	15	3	5	7	-7	+2.1	14
17	Parma	15	3	5	7	-8	-4.3	14
18	Verona	15	2	6	7	-9	-1.1	12
19	Pisa	15	1	7	7	-10	-6.2	10
20	Fiorentina	15	0	6	9	-14	-1.3	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+8	+1.6	19
2	Inter	8	6	0	2	+16	+9.8	18
3	Milan	8	5	2	1	+4	+3.9	17
4	Lazio	8	4	3	1	+8	+2.2	15
5	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
6	Juventus	7	4	3	0	+6	+6.2	15
7	Roma	8	5	0	3	+4	+2.0	15
8	Bologna	7	4	1	2	+5	+5.1	13
9	Atalanta	8	3	4	1	+3	+7.0	13
10	Udinese	8	3	2	3	-4	+0.8	11
11	Torino	8	3	2	3	-5	-4.1	11
12	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.8	10
13	Cremonese	7	2	3	2	+0	+0.4	9
14	Lecce	8	2	3	3	-2	-0.7	9
15	Cagliari	7	2	2	3	-2	-3.1	8
16	Verona	7	1	3	3	-1	+1.0	6
17	Pisa	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.2	6
18	Parma	8	1	3	4	-5	-2.7	6
19	Genoa	8	1	3	4	-6	+1.5	6
20	Fiorentina	7	0	2	5	-6	+0.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	+2.1	15
2	Inter	7	5	0	2	+4	+4.1	15
3	Roma	7	5	0	2	+4	-0.5	15
4	Bologna	8	3	3	2	+5	-1.6	12
5	Napoli	8	4	0	4	+1	+4.0	12
6	Cremonese	9	3	3	3	+0	-7.3	12
7	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.1	11
8	Juventus	8	3	2	3	-1	+1.7	11
9	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-2	-3.0	10
10	Como	8	2	3	3	-1	+0.9	9
11	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.7	8
12	Lazio	8	2	2	4	-2	-6.2	8
13	Parma	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.7	8
14	Lecce	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.3	7
15	Atalanta	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.7	6
16	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
17	Torino	7	1	3	3	-6	-1.1	6
18	Verona	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.1	6
19	Pisa	7	0	4	3	-6	-5.0	4
20	Fiorentina	8	0	4	4	-8	-2.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.