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Serie B

Referee: Marco Piccinini

Frosinone

U S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Spezia

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Frosinone Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

63%

19%

Points per game

2,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

56%

31%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,9

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,01 xG 1,85

48% Possession 52%

22 Shots 16

8 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 10

5 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Frosinone 1. · Spezia 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	16	10	4	2	+17	+5.4	34
2	Monza	16	9	4	3	+9	+4.2	31
3	Cesena	16	9	3	4	+7	+3.2	30
4	Venezia	16	8	5	3	+15	+10.0	29
5	Palermo	16	8	5	3	+14	+1.9	29
6	Modena	16	8	5	3	+13	+6.6	29
7	Catanzaro	17	7	7	3	+5	-0.1	28
8	Juve Stabia	16	5	7	4	-2	-1.4	22
9	Padova	16	5	6	5	-2	-1.2	21
10	Empoli	16	5	5	6	+0	+1.4	20
11	Reggiana	16	5	5	6	-1	-0.6	20
12	Avellino	16	5	5	6	-9	-6.1	20
13	Carrarese	16	4	7	5	-2	-4.8	19
14	Bari	17	3	7	7	-12	-3.2	16
15	Sudtirol	16	2	9	5	-4	-3.0	15
16	Virtus Entella	16	3	6	7	-9	-5.2	15
17	Spezia	16	3	5	8	-8	+0.3	14
18	Mantova	16	4	2	10	-11	-2.8	14
19	Sampdoria	16	3	4	9	-8	-0.6	13
20	Pescara	16	1	7	8	-12	-4.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	8	7	0	1	+15	+5.1	21
2	Monza	8	6	1	1	+6	+0.5	19
3	Palermo	9	5	3	1	+11	+4.5	18
4	Modena	8	5	2	1	+9	+1.7	17
5	Juve Stabia	8	4	4	0	+6	+0.8	16
6	Catanzaro	9	4	4	1	+3	+0.9	16
7	Frosinone	7	4	2	1	+10	+2.9	14
8	Empoli	9	3	5	1	+6	+2.8	14
9	Cesena	7	4	2	1	+5	+3.8	14
10	Virtus Entella	8	3	4	1	+3	-1.4	13
11	Carrarese	8	3	3	2	+3	-0.5	12
12	Reggiana	8	3	3	2	+3	-1.5	12
13	Bari	8	3	3	2	+1	-1.6	12
14	Sampdoria	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.5	11
15	Avellino	7	3	2	2	-3	-3.9	11
16	Mantova	8	3	1	4	-4	+2.5	10
17	Sudtirol	8	2	2	4	-1	-1.3	8
18	Pescara	9	1	4	4	-2	-2.4	7
19	Padova	7	1	4	2	-2	-1.3	7
20	Spezia	9	1	3	5	-7	-1.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	9	6	2	1	+7	+2.4	20
2	Cesena	9	5	1	3	+2	-0.5	16
3	Padova	9	4	2	3	+0	+0.1	14
4	Modena	8	3	3	2	+4	+4.9	12
5	Monza	8	3	3	2	+3	+3.6	12
6	Catanzaro	8	3	3	2	+2	-1.0	12
7	Palermo	7	3	2	2	+3	-2.6	11
8	Avellino	9	2	3	4	-6	-2.2	9
9	Venezia	8	1	5	2	+0	+4.8	8
10	Spezia	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.0	8
11	Reggiana	8	2	2	4	-4	+0.9	8
12	Sudtirol	8	0	7	1	-3	-1.6	7
13	Carrarese	8	1	4	3	-5	-4.3	7
14	Empoli	7	2	0	5	-6	-1.4	6
15	Juve Stabia	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.1	6
16	Mantova	8	1	1	6	-7	-5.2	4
17	Bari	9	0	4	5	-13	-1.6	4
18	Pescara	7	0	3	4	-10	-1.6	3
19	Sampdoria	8	0	2	6	-9	-3.1	2
20	Virtus Entella	8	0	2	6	-12	-3.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.