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Eredivisie

Referee: Sander van der Eijk

Excelsior

U T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Zwolle

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Zwolle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 32%

33%

31%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

60%

63%

Both score Ø 55%

53%

56%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,71 xG 1,18

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 14. · Zwolle 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	14	1	1	+30	+14.4	43
2	Feyenoord	16	11	1	4	+21	+22.0	34
3	Nijmegen	16	8	4	4	+14	+5.6	28
4	Ajax	15	7	5	3	+8	+0.4	26
5	Groningen	15	8	2	5	+5	+9.4	26
6	AZ Alkmaar	15	7	4	4	+4	+9.3	25
7	Twente	16	6	6	4	+5	+14.8	24
8	Utrecht	15	6	4	5	+6	-2.8	22
9	Heerenveen	16	6	4	6	+3	+12.6	22
10	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	2	8	-14	-6.6	20
11	Zwolle	16	5	4	7	-16	-13.9	19
12	Go Ahead Eagles	16	4	6	6	-3	-10.4	18
13	For Sittard	16	5	3	8	-5	-4.8	18
14	Excelsior	15	5	1	9	-12	-11.1	16
15	Volendam	16	3	5	8	-11	-12.8	14
16	Heracles	17	4	2	11	-18	-12.1	14
17	NAC Breda	16	3	4	9	-9	-5.9	13
18	Telstar	16	2	6	8	-8	-8.3	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	+13	+9.5	19
2	Feyenoord	8	6	0	2	+10	+13.5	18
3	Nijmegen	7	5	1	1	+11	+6.4	16
4	Utrecht	7	5	1	1	+10	+3.0	16
5	Ajax	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.6	16
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.2	14
7	Twente	8	4	2	2	+2	+9.9	14
8	For Sittard	8	4	2	2	+2	+4.3	14
9	Zwolle	8	4	1	3	-4	-2.2	13
10	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	3	1	+3	+5.1	12
11	Volendam	8	3	3	2	+3	+0.4	12
12	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	3	1	+3	-0.2	12
13	Heerenveen	8	3	3	2	+1	+8.8	12
14	NAC Breda	8	3	2	3	+0	+3.6	11
15	Sparta Rotterdam	9	3	2	4	-9	-3.8	11
16	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-3	-1.6	10
17	Excelsior	8	3	0	5	-3	-6.0	9
18	Telstar	9	1	4	4	-4	-0.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+17	+4.9	24
2	Feyenoord	8	5	1	2	+11	+8.5	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+1	+4.2	13
4	Nijmegen	9	3	3	3	+3	-0.8	12
5	Groningen	7	4	0	3	-2	+2.2	12
6	Twente	8	2	4	2	+3	+4.9	10
7	Ajax	7	2	4	1	+2	-4.2	10
8	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
9	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.7	9
10	Excelsior	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.0	7
11	Utrecht	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
12	Go Ahead Eagles	9	1	3	5	-6	-10.1	6
13	Zwolle	8	1	3	4	-12	-11.7	6
14	Telstar	7	1	2	4	-4	-8.3	5
15	For Sittard	8	1	1	6	-7	-9.1	4
16	Heracles	9	1	1	7	-15	-10.5	4
17	NAC Breda	8	0	2	6	-9	-9.6	2
18	Volendam	8	0	2	6	-14	-13.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.