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Coupe de France

Referee: A Baert

SA Mérignac

S U U U S

0–0

Full-time

Istres

S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

SA Mérignac Istres

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 54%

33%

75%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

33%

75%

Both score Ø 29%

33%

25%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

This season — Coupe de France · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

0,5

2,5

Scored

0,5

2,0

Conceded

0,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

34% Possession 66%

15 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 8

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match SA Mérignac 45. · Istres 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Laval	3	3	0	0	+13	9
2	Reims	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Troyes	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Chantilly	3	3	0	0	+7	9
5	Montpellier	3	3	0	0	+5	9
6	Bayeux	3	3	0	0	+3	9
7	Les Herbiers	3	2	1	0	+3	7
8	St Etienne	2	2	0	0	+12	6
9	St Maur Lusitanos	3	2	0	1	+9	6
10	Amiens	2	2	0	0	+7	6
11	Nancy	2	2	0	0	+6	6
12	Pontivy GSI	2	2	0	0	+6	6
13	Olympique Marcquois	3	2	0	1	+5	6
14	Feignies-Aulnoye	3	2	0	1	+4	6
15	Guingamp	3	2	0	1	+4	6
16	Orleans	2	2	0	0	+4	6
17	Grenoble	2	2	0	0	+4	6
18	Dieppe	2	2	0	0	+4	6
19	Lyon Duchere	2	2	0	0	+4	6
20	Concarneau	2	2	0	0	+4	6
21	Canet Roussillon	3	2	0	1	+3	6
22	Bourg-en-bresse 01	2	2	0	0	+3	6
23	Istres	2	2	0	0	+3	6
24	Bordeaux	2	2	0	0	+2	6
25	Le Puy Foot	2	2	0	0	+2	6
26	Le Mans	3	1	2	0	+1	5
27	Sochaux	2	1	1	0	+6	4
28	Bastia	2	1	1	0	+6	4
29	Dunkerque	2	1	1	0	+5	4
30	Chauvigny	2	1	1	0	+4	4
31	Aubervilliers	2	1	1	0	+3	4
32	Raon l'Etape	2	1	1	0	+3	4
33	Mulhouse	2	1	1	0	+3	4
34	Bassin d'Arcachon Sud	2	1	1	0	+3	4
35	Vendée Fontenay	2	1	1	0	+3	4
36	Feurs	2	1	1	0	+2	4
37	Granville	2	1	1	0	+2	4
38	Romorantin	2	1	1	0	+2	4
39	Red Star	2	1	1	0	+2	4
40	Périgny	3	1	1	1	+1	4
41	Poitiers	2	1	1	0	+1	4
42	Marmande	2	1	1	0	+1	4
43	Les Sables-d'Olonne	2	1	1	0	+1	4
44	Montreuil	2	1	1	0	+1	4
45	SA Mérignac	2	1	1	0	+1	4
46	Biesheim	3	1	1	1	-2	4
47	Freyming	3	1	1	1	-2	4
48	Croix Football IC	3	1	1	1	-3	4
49	Gosier	3	1	1	1	-6	4
50	Lorient	1	1	0	0	+7	3
51	Ancienne Château-Gontier	2	1	0	1	+5	3
52	Stade Briochin	2	1	0	1	+3	3
53	Racing Besançon	2	1	0	1	+3	3
54	Metz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
55	Carnoux	2	1	0	1	+2	3
56	MJEP Cormontreuil	2	1	0	1	+2	3
57	Lens	1	1	0	0	+2	3
58	Chalon	2	1	0	1	+2	3
59	Sarreguemines	2	1	0	1	+1	3
60	Stade Plabennec	2	1	0	1	+1	3
61	Rodez	2	1	0	1	+1	3
62	Pau FC	2	1	0	1	+1	3
63	Lille	1	1	0	0	+1	3
64	Mazeres	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Annecy	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Avranches	3	0	3	0	+0	3
67	Bondues	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Union Saint-Jean	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Yvetot	2	1	0	1	+0	3
70	Chateauroux	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	Montceau	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Beaucouzé	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	Torcy	2	1	0	1	-2	3
74	Reims Sainte-Anne	2	1	0	1	-3	3
75	Abbeville	2	1	0	1	-4	3
76	Saint-Pauloise	2	1	0	1	-5	3
77	Oissel	2	0	2	0	+0	2
78	Villeneuve-la-Garenne	2	0	2	0	+0	2
79	Hauts Lyonnais	2	0	2	0	+0	2
80	Stade Béthunois	2	0	2	0	+0	2
81	Rhone-Vallee	2	0	2	0	+0	2
82	Steenvoorde	2	0	2	0	+0	2
83	Saint-Malo	2	0	2	0	+0	2
84	Saint-Cyr Collonges	2	0	2	0	+0	2
85	Blois	3	0	2	1	-1	2
86	Nord Lozère	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Boulogne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Quevilly Rouen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Racing Colombes 92	1	0	1	0	+0	1
90	Fleury 91	1	0	1	0	+0	1
91	Pontarlier	1	0	1	0	+0	1
92	Etoile Matoury	1	0	1	0	+0	1
93	Wittenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
94	Andrézieux	1	0	1	0	+0	1
95	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
96	Vitré	1	0	1	0	+0	1
97	Loon-Plage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
98	Saint-Meziery	1	0	1	0	+0	1
99	Grasse	1	0	1	0	+0	1
100	Villars-l'Isle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
101	Chambly Thelle FC	1	0	1	0	+0	1
102	Ivry	1	0	1	0	+0	1
103	Etoile Bobigny	1	0	1	0	+0	1
104	Saint-Brice Courcelles	1	0	1	0	+0	1
105	Pen Hir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
106	Épernay	1	0	1	0	+0	1
107	Clermont	1	0	1	0	+0	1
108	Drancy	1	0	1	0	+0	1
109	Gobelins	1	0	1	0	+0	1
110	Angers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
111	Colomiers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
112	Sablé	1	0	1	0	+0	1
113	Chamalières	1	0	1	0	+0	1
114	Thonon Évian	1	0	1	0	+0	1
115	Aubagne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
116	Eveil	1	0	1	0	+0	1
117	Mauguio Carnon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
118	Le Geldar	2	0	1	1	-1	1
119	Plouvorn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
120	Selongey	2	0	1	1	-1	1
121	Beauvais	2	0	1	1	-1	1
122	APM Metz	2	0	1	1	-2	1
123	UF Touraine	2	0	1	1	-2	1
124	Seyssinet-Pariset	2	0	1	1	-2	1
125	Bogny	2	0	1	1	-3	1
126	Espoir Ste Luce	2	0	1	1	-4	1
127	Sarre Union	2	0	1	1	-6	1
128	Ecotay Moingt	2	0	1	1	-10	1
129	Strasbourg Koenigshoffen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
130	Moulien	1	0	0	1	-1	0
131	Caen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
132	Seignosse Capbreton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
133	ES Cappelle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
134	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	1	0	0	1	-1	0
135	Cannes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
136	Saint-Colomban Locminé	1	0	0	1	-1	0
137	L'Etrat La Tour	1	0	0	1	-1	0
138	Caen PTT	1	0	0	1	-1	0
139	Lapalisse	1	0	0	1	-1	0
140	SS Allinges	1	0	0	1	-1	0
141	Boé Bon Encontre	1	0	0	1	-1	0
142	ASPTT Dijon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
143	OCPAM	1	0	0	1	-1	0
144	Angoulême	1	0	0	1	-1	0
145	FC 2 Rives 82	1	0	0	1	-1	0
146	Bandrele	1	0	0	1	-1	0
147	Montmorillon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
148	Dominicaine	1	0	0	1	-1	0
149	Savigneux Montbrison	1	0	0	1	-2	0
150	Furiani-Agliani	1	0	0	1	-2	0
151	Orvault SF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
152	Dinan Léhon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
153	Lavaur	1	0	0	1	-2	0
154	Quetigny	1	0	0	1	-2	0
155	Trélissac	1	0	0	1	-2	0
156	Biars-Bretenoux	1	0	0	1	-2	0
157	Agde	1	0	0	1	-2	0
158	Challans	1	0	0	1	-2	0
159	Forbach	1	0	0	1	-2	0
160	Atlas Paillade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
161	Avion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
162	Plédran	1	0	0	1	-2	0
163	Longuenesse	1	0	0	1	-2	0
164	Pierrelatte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
165	Le Poinconnet	1	0	0	1	-2	0
166	SA Beaumont	1	0	0	1	-3	0
167	Porto Portugais Amiens	1	0	0	1	-3	0
168	Blagnac	1	0	0	1	-3	0
169	Auch	1	0	0	1	-3	0
170	Bayonne	1	0	0	1	-3	0
171	France Aizenay	1	0	0	1	-3	0
172	ASS Still Mutzig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
173	Olympique de Villefontaine	1	0	0	1	-3	0
174	Magenta	1	0	0	1	-3	0
175	Auby	1	0	0	1	-3	0
176	Les Bleuets	1	0	0	1	-3	0
177	Montreal-la-Cluse	1	0	0	1	-3	0
178	Premontre	1	0	0	1	-3	0
179	Saint-Amand	1	0	0	1	-3	0
180	Pirae	1	0	0	1	-4	0
181	Avenir Sportif de Gouzon	1	0	0	1	-4	0
182	Cambrai	1	0	0	1	-4	0
183	Saint-Renan	1	0	0	1	-4	0
184	Thionville Lusitanos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
185	GSA Tomblaine	1	0	0	1	-5	0
186	OS Aire-Sur-La-Lys	1	0	0	1	-5	0
187	US Chateau-Malo	1	0	0	1	-6	0
188	Le Cellier Mauves	1	0	0	1	-6	0
189	Camon	1	0	0	1	-7	0
190	Stade Quimperlois	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Olympique Marcquois	3	2	0	1	+5	6
2	Bayeux	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Vendée Fontenay	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Montreuil	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	SA Mérignac	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Croix Football IC	3	1	1	1	-3	4
7	St Etienne	1	1	0	0	+10	3
8	Laval	1	1	0	0	+6	3
9	Nancy	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Carnoux	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Racing Besançon	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Bassin d'Arcachon Sud	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Orleans	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	MJEP Cormontreuil	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Lens	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Lyon Duchere	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Granville	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Sarreguemines	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	Périgny	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Les Sables-d'Olonne	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Concarneau	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Saint-Pauloise	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Avranches	3	0	3	0	+0	3
24	Union Saint-Jean	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Yvetot	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Canet Roussillon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	Montceau	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Freyming	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Reims Sainte-Anne	2	1	0	1	-3	3
30	Steenvoorde	2	0	2	0	+0	2
31	Saint-Cyr Collonges	2	0	2	0	+0	2
32	Nord Lozère	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Chauvigny	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Boulogne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Oissel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Raon l'Etape	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Pontarlier	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Romorantin	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Etoile Matoury	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Villeneuve-la-Garenne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Wittenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Andrézieux	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Vitré	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Loon-Plage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Hauts Lyonnais	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Saint-Meziery	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Rhone-Vallee	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Villars-l'Isle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Ivry	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Etoile Bobigny	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Saint-Brice Courcelles	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Pen Hir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Blois	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Drancy	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Saint-Malo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Les Herbiers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Sablé	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Marmande	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Mauguio Carnon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	APM Metz	2	0	1	1	-2	1
61	UF Touraine	2	0	1	1	-2	1
62	Seyssinet-Pariset	2	0	1	1	-2	1
63	Biesheim	2	0	1	1	-3	1
64	Espoir Ste Luce	2	0	1	1	-4	1
65	Gosier	2	0	1	1	-7	1
66	Mazeres	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Strasbourg Koenigshoffen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Moulien	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Seignosse Capbreton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	ES Cappelle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Selongey	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Annecy	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Beauvais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Stade Plabennec	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Cannes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Saint-Colomban Locminé	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Lapalisse	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	SS Allinges	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Guingamp	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Boé Bon Encontre	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	ASPTT Dijon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	OCPAM	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	FC 2 Rives 82	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Chalon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Montmorillon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	St Maur Lusitanos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Savigneux Montbrison	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Orvault SF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Lavaur	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Quetigny	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	Trélissac	1	0	0	1	-2	0
92	Biars-Bretenoux	1	0	0	1	-2	0
93	Agde	1	0	0	1	-2	0
94	Challans	1	0	0	1	-2	0
95	Forbach	1	0	0	1	-2	0
96	Atlas Paillade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
97	Avion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
98	Plédran	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Longuenesse	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Pierrelatte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Le Poinconnet	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	SA Beaumont	1	0	0	1	-3	0
103	Auch	1	0	0	1	-3	0
104	France Aizenay	1	0	0	1	-3	0
105	ASS Still Mutzig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
106	Olympique de Villefontaine	1	0	0	1	-3	0
107	Magenta	1	0	0	1	-3	0
108	Auby	1	0	0	1	-3	0
109	Les Bleuets	1	0	0	1	-3	0
110	Montreal-la-Cluse	1	0	0	1	-3	0
111	Premontre	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	Bogny	1	0	0	1	-3	0
113	Saint-Amand	1	0	0	1	-3	0
114	Torcy	1	0	0	1	-4	0
115	Avenir Sportif de Gouzon	1	0	0	1	-4	0
116	Cambrai	1	0	0	1	-4	0
117	Saint-Renan	1	0	0	1	-4	0
118	Ancienne Château-Gontier	1	0	0	1	-4	0
119	Abbeville	1	0	0	1	-5	0
120	Sarre Union	1	0	0	1	-6	0
121	US Chateau-Malo	1	0	0	1	-6	0
122	Le Cellier Mauves	1	0	0	1	-6	0
123	Camon	1	0	0	1	-7	0
124	Stade Quimperlois	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reims	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Troyes	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Chantilly	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Montpellier	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	St Maur Lusitanos	2	2	0	0	+10	6
6	Laval	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Amiens	2	2	0	0	+7	6
8	Pontivy GSI	2	2	0	0	+6	6
9	Guingamp	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Feignies-Aulnoye	3	2	0	1	+4	6
11	Grenoble	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Dieppe	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Les Herbiers	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Bourg-en-bresse 01	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Istres	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Bordeaux	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Le Puy Foot	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Le Mans	3	1	2	0	+1	5
19	Sochaux	2	1	1	0	+6	4
20	Bastia	2	1	1	0	+6	4
21	Dunkerque	2	1	1	0	+5	4
22	Aubervilliers	2	1	1	0	+3	4
23	Mulhouse	2	1	1	0	+3	4
24	Feurs	2	1	1	0	+2	4
25	Red Star	2	1	1	0	+2	4
26	Poitiers	2	1	1	0	+1	4
27	Ancienne Château-Gontier	1	1	0	0	+9	3
28	Lorient	1	1	0	0	+7	3
29	Chauvigny	1	1	0	0	+4	3
30	Stade Briochin	2	1	0	1	+3	3
31	Canet Roussillon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
32	Metz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
33	Raon l'Etape	1	1	0	0	+3	3
34	Concarneau	1	1	0	0	+3	3
35	Chalon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
36	St Etienne	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Torcy	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Stade Plabennec	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Lyon Duchere	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Romorantin	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Nancy	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Biesheim	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Rodez	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Gosier	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Marmande	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Abbeville	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Pau FC	2	1	0	1	+1	3
48	Annecy	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Orleans	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Bayeux	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Mazeres	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Lille	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Bondues	2	1	0	1	+0	3
54	Chateauroux	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Beaucouzé	2	1	0	1	-1	3
56	Stade Béthunois	2	0	2	0	+0	2
57	Quevilly Rouen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Racing Colombes 92	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Fleury 91	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Oissel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Freyming	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Hauts Lyonnais	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Périgny	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Grasse	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Sarre Union	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Chambly Thelle FC	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Granville	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Villeneuve-la-Garenne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Bogny	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Les Sables-d'Olonne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Épernay	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Clermont	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Beauvais	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Gobelins	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Angers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Colomiers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Saint-Malo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Chamalières	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Thonon Évian	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Rhone-Vallee	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Bassin d'Arcachon Sud	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Aubagne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Eveil	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Selongey	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Le Geldar	2	0	1	1	-1	1
87	Blois	2	0	1	1	-1	1
88	Plouvorn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
89	Ecotay Moingt	2	0	1	1	-10	1
90	Caen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	L'Etrat La Tour	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Caen PTT	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Racing Besançon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Angoulême	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Bandrele	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Dominicaine	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Furiani-Agliani	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Carnoux	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Dinan Léhon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Porto Portugais Amiens	1	0	0	1	-3	0
102	Blagnac	1	0	0	1	-3	0
103	Bayonne	1	0	0	1	-3	0
104	Pirae	1	0	0	1	-4	0
105	Thionville Lusitanos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
106	GSA Tomblaine	1	0	0	1	-5	0
107	OS Aire-Sur-La-Lys	1	0	0	1	-5	0
108	Saint-Pauloise	1	0	0	1	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.