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2. Bundesliga

Referee: R Schroder

Holstein Kiel

T T U U U

2–1

Full-time

Dresden

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Dresden

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 22%

25%

19%

Points per game

1,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

38%

81%

Both score Ø 69%

56%

81%

Average goals

2,4

3,4

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,08 xG 1,23

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 6

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 13. · Dresden 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	16	12	1	3	+13	+4.2	37
2	Elversberg	16	10	3	3	+16	-1.9	33
3	Darmstadt	17	9	6	2	+12	+7.0	33
4	Paderborn	17	10	3	4	+10	+7.3	33
5	Hannover	16	8	5	3	+9	+3.9	29
6	Hertha	17	8	4	5	+5	-1.9	28
7	Kaiserslautern	17	8	3	6	+8	+1.3	27
8	Karlsruhe	17	6	4	7	-8	-13.9	22
9	Bochum	17	6	3	8	+1	+4.4	21
10	Bielefeld	17	5	4	8	+3	+0.7	19
11	Preußen Münster	16	5	4	7	-4	-1.7	19
12	Nurnberg	16	5	4	7	-5	+0.1	19
13	Holstein Kiel	16	4	5	7	-3	-6.1	17
14	Magdeburg	17	5	2	10	-8	+2.9	17
15	Braunschweig	16	5	2	9	-10	+2.9	17
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	17	5	2	10	-12	-4.6	17
17	Greuther Furth	17	4	3	10	-18	-4.1	15
18	Dresden	16	3	4	9	-9	-0.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	9	6	3	0	+10	+8.7	21
2	Schalke 04	8	7	0	1	+6	+2.5	21
3	Kaiserslautern	9	6	1	2	+10	+4.3	19
4	Elversberg	8	5	3	0	+10	-1.4	18
5	Paderborn	9	5	1	3	+2	+3.1	16
6	Karlsruhe	8	5	0	3	+0	-6.4	15
7	Hertha	9	4	2	3	-1	+0.3	14
8	Bielefeld	9	4	1	4	+7	+6.0	13
9	Preußen Münster	8	3	4	1	+3	-0.8	13
10	Bochum	8	4	1	3	+3	+6.6	13
11	Hannover	8	4	1	3	+1	+4.3	13
12	Nurnberg	8	3	3	2	+0	+0.5	12
13	Holstein Kiel	7	2	2	3	+0	-0.5	8
14	Braunschweig	8	2	2	4	-6	+5.1	8
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	2	2	5	-7	-2.6	8
16	Greuther Furth	8	2	2	4	-9	-2.2	8
17	Magdeburg	8	2	1	5	-4	+4.0	7
18	Dresden	8	1	2	5	-4	+3.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paderborn	8	5	2	1	+8	+4.1	17
2	Hannover	8	4	4	0	+8	-0.4	16
3	Schalke 04	8	5	1	2	+7	+1.7	16
4	Elversberg	8	5	0	3	+6	-0.5	15
5	Hertha	8	4	2	2	+6	-2.3	14
6	Darmstadt	8	3	3	2	+2	-1.7	12
7	Magdeburg	9	3	1	5	-4	-1.1	10
8	Holstein Kiel	9	2	3	4	-3	-5.6	9
9	Braunschweig	8	3	0	5	-4	-2.2	9
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	3	0	5	-5	-2.0	9
11	Bochum	9	2	2	5	-2	-2.1	8
12	Kaiserslautern	8	2	2	4	-2	-3.0	8
13	Dresden	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.0	8
14	Nurnberg	8	2	1	5	-5	-0.4	7
15	Karlsruhe	9	1	4	4	-8	-7.5	7
16	Greuther Furth	9	2	1	6	-9	-1.9	7
17	Bielefeld	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.2	6
18	Preußen Münster	8	2	0	6	-7	-0.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.