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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Leeds

T T T T S

3–3

Full-time

Liverpool

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

2,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 40%

29%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

71%

64%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,51 xG 1,91

45% Possession 55%

12 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 17. · Liverpool 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	10	3	2	+19	+16.7	33
2	Man City	15	10	1	4	+19	+13.9	31
3	Aston Villa	15	9	3	3	+7	-4.4	30
4	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+10	+5.4	25
5	Everton	15	7	3	5	+1	-1.7	24
6	Crystal Palace	14	6	5	3	+7	+6.3	23
7	Sunderland	15	6	5	4	+1	-8.1	23
8	Tottenham	15	6	4	5	+7	-5.0	22
9	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+4	+3.8	22
10	Newcastle	15	6	4	5	+2	+3.9	22
11	Man United	14	6	4	4	+1	+3.5	22
12	Liverpool	14	7	1	6	+0	+6.3	22
13	Bournemouth	15	5	5	5	-3	+1.7	20
14	Brentford	15	6	1	8	-3	+2.6	19
15	Fulham	14	5	2	7	-3	-3.5	17
16	Nott'm Forest	15	4	3	8	-11	-5.1	15
17	Leeds	14	4	2	8	-10	-1.3	14
18	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.7	12
19	Burnley	15	3	1	11	-14	-18.9	10
20	Wolves	14	0	2	12	-22	-6.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	0	1	+16	+10.4	21
2	Arsenal	7	6	1	0	+16	+10.4	19
3	Aston Villa	8	6	1	1	+7	-1.4	19
4	Brentford	7	5	1	1	+7	+4.5	16
5	Newcastle	8	5	1	2	+4	+4.9	16
6	Sunderland	7	4	3	0	+7	-0.9	15
7	Bournemouth	8	4	3	1	+5	+5.4	15
8	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.4	14
9	Everton	8	4	2	2	+2	+1.5	14
10	Fulham	7	4	1	2	+5	+1.0	13
11	Man United	7	4	1	2	+4	+7.9	13
12	Liverpool	7	4	1	2	+2	+4.3	13
13	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+3	+3.1	11
14	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+2	+6.6	11
15	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+2	+5.9	10
16	Tottenham	8	2	2	4	+1	-0.9	8
17	Burnley	7	2	1	4	-2	-7.6	7
18	Nott'm Forest	7	2	1	4	-5	+0.9	7
19	West Ham	7	2	0	5	-9	-4.1	6
20	Wolves	7	0	1	6	-11	-0.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+7	+2.3	14
2	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+6	-4.2	14
3	Arsenal	8	4	2	2	+3	+6.3	14
4	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.4	13
5	Aston Villa	7	3	2	2	+0	-3.0	11
6	Man City	7	3	1	3	+3	+3.5	10
7	Everton	7	3	1	3	-1	-3.2	10
8	Liverpool	7	3	0	4	-2	+2.0	9
9	Man United	7	2	3	2	-3	-4.3	9
10	Brighton	7	2	2	3	-1	+1.4	8
11	Nott'm Forest	8	2	2	4	-6	-6.0	8
12	Sunderland	8	2	2	4	-6	-7.1	8
13	Newcastle	7	1	3	3	-2	-1.0	6
14	West Ham	7	1	3	3	-3	-5.6	6
15	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-8	-3.7	5
16	Fulham	7	1	1	5	-8	-4.5	4
17	Brentford	8	1	0	7	-10	-1.8	3
18	Burnley	8	1	0	7	-12	-11.3	3
19	Leeds	7	1	0	6	-12	-7.9	3
20	Wolves	7	0	1	6	-11	-6.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.