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Champions League
Referee: A Hernandez
Atalanta
T S S S T
2–1
Full-time
Chelsea
S S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,3
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 60%
60%
60%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
60%
80%
Both score Ø 40%
20%
60%
Average goals
2,2
3,6
Scored
1,2
2,4
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,72 xG 1,37
49% Possession 51%
14 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 5
7 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 5
4 Offside 2
6 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Atalanta Chelsea
D. Zappacosta 🔁
↦ R. Bellanova
17′
25′
⚽ Joao Pedro 0–1
R. James
26′
ℹ️ João Pedro
VAR: Goal confirmed
29′
🟨 Trevoh Chalobah
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 W. Fofana
↦ T. Chalobah
1–1 G. Scamacca ⚽
C. De Ketelaere
55′
67′
🔁 M. Gusto
↦ E. Fernandez
67′
🔁 A. Garnacho
↦ P. Neto
H. Ahanor 🔁
↦ S. Kolasinac
71′
N. Krstovic 🔁
↦ G. Scamacca
71′
76′
🔁 T. Adarabioyo
↦
2–1 C. De Ketelaere ⚽
M. De Roon
83′
Y. Musah 🔁
↦ Ederson
87′
M. Pasalic 🔁
↦ A. Lookman
87′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
29 M. Carnesecchi G
3 O. Kossounou D
19 B. Djimsiti D
23 S. Kolasinac D
16 R. Bellanova M
15 M. De Roon M
13 Ederson M
47 L. Bernasconi M
17 C. De Ketelaere F
11 A. Lookman F
9 G. Scamacca F
Bench (12)
57 M. Sportiello
4 I. Hien
6 Y. Musah
8 M. Pasalic
10 L. Samardzic
42 G. Scalvini
44 M. Brescianini
59 N. Zalewski
69 H. Ahanor
70 D. Maldini
77 D. Zappacosta
90 N. Krstovic

Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Chelsea

4-2-3-1
1 R. Sanchez G
34 J. Acheampong D
23 T. Chalobah D
5 B. Badiashile D
3 M. Cucurella D
25 M. Caicedo M
24 R. James M
7 P. Neto M
8 E. Fernandez M
11 J. Gittens M
20 Joao Pedro F
Bench (12)
12 F. Jorgensen
50 M. Merrick
4 T. Adarabioyo
17 Andrey Santos
21 J. Hato
27 M. Gusto
29 W. Fofana
32 T. George
38 M. Guiu
40 F. Buonanotte
41 Estêvão
49 A. Garnacho

Coach: Liam Rosenior

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Hernandez · 22 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.