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League Cup

Referee: Tony Harrington

Cardiff

S S S S T

1–3

Full-time

Chelsea

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 4/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 88%

75%

100%

Average goals

3,0

5,0

Scored

2,3

3,0

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,46 xG 1,65

46% Possession 54%

10 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 10

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 8

1 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 1. · Chelsea 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cardiff	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.9	12
2	Wycombe	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.4	8
3	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+7	+0.8	7
4	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	–	7
5	Wrexham	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.4	7
6	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.5	7
7	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.2	7
8	Grimsby	4	2	1	1	-2	+1.8	7
9	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+10	+0.1	6
10	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
11	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.4	6
12	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.1	6
13	Doncaster	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
14	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
15	Cambridge United	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.1	6
16	Wolves	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.4	6
17	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
18	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.8	6
19	Bradford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
20	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
21	Reading	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.3	6
22	Port Vale	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
23	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
24	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+3	–	4
25	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
26	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
27	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
28	Stockport County	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
29	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
30	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
31	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
32	Everton	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
33	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
34	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
35	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
36	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
37	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
38	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
39	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.9	3
40	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
41	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
42	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
43	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-2	+1.1	2
44	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
45	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
46	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
47	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
48	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
49	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
51	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
55	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
56	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
57	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
58	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
59	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
60	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
61	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
62	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
63	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
64	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
65	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
68	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
69	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
70	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
71	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
72	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
73	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
74	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
75	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
76	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
77	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
78	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
79	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
80	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
81	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
82	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
83	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
84	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
85	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
86	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
87	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
88	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
89	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
90	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
91	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
92	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.2	7
2	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
3	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
4	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
5	Wolves	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.4	6
6	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
7	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
8	Wrexham	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.4	4
9	Grimsby	3	1	1	1	-3	+1.8	4
10	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
11	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
12	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
13	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
14	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
16	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
17	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
18	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
19	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
20	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
23	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
24	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
25	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
26	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
27	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
28	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
29	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
30	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
32	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Wycombe	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
37	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
38	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
39	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.1	1
40	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
41	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
43	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
44	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
45	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
47	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
48	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
49	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
50	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
51	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
52	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
53	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
54	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
55	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
56	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
57	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
58	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wycombe	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.4	7
2	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+10	+0.1	6
3	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+7	+0.8	6
4	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.4	6
5	Doncaster	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
6	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
7	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
8	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
9	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.6	6
10	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
11	Bradford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
12	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
13	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
14	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Wrexham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
17	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
18	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
20	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
21	Reading	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	3
22	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
23	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
24	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
25	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
26	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
27	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
34	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
36	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
37	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
38	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
39	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
42	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
43	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
45	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
46	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
47	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
48	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
49	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
50	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
51	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
52	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
53	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
54	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
55	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
56	Everton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
57	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
58	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
59	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
60	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
61	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.