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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Nijmegen

S T T U T

3–0

Full-time

Heerenveen

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 8/7 matches

Win Ø 27%

25%

29%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

38%

43%

Both score Ø 48%

38%

57%

Average goals

2,0

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,33 xG 0,34

44% Possession 56%

12 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 16. · Heerenveen 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+23	+13.5	27
2	Utrecht	7	6	1	0	+6	-0.5	19
3	Twente	8	4	2	2	+7	+9.2	14
4	Ajax	6	4	1	1	+9	+7.5	13
5	Feyenoord	7	3	4	0	+7	+6.1	13
6	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.7	13
7	Go Ahead Eagles	8	4	1	3	+0	+7.5	13
8	Willem II	8	3	2	3	+2	-4.3	11
9	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	5	2	+0	+0.7	11
10	For Sittard	8	3	1	4	-5	-2.1	10
11	Groningen	8	2	3	3	+0	-5.7	9
12	Heracles	8	2	3	3	-6	-4.6	9
13	NAC Breda	8	3	0	5	-8	-6.5	9
14	Heerenveen	7	2	2	3	+1	+1.1	8
15	Zwolle	8	2	2	4	-3	-6.0	8
16	Nijmegen	8	2	1	5	-2	-4.6	7
17	Almere City	9	0	3	6	-17	-5.6	3
18	Waalwijk	8	0	0	8	-17	-9.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.5	12
2	Utrecht	4	4	0	0	+4	+2.0	12
3	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.0	9
4	NAC Breda	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.4	9
5	Heerenveen	4	2	2	0	+5	+5.2	8
6	Twente	4	2	2	0	+3	+8.1	8
7	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	+3	+6.8	7
8	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
9	Willem II	4	2	0	2	+2	-0.2	6
10	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
11	For Sittard	4	2	0	2	-1	+2.2	6
12	Groningen	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.8	5
13	Heracles	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.8	5
14	Sparta Rotterdam	5	0	4	1	-1	+2.6	4
15	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.6	4
16	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.1	3
17	Almere City	5	0	1	4	-13	-0.9	1
18	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+13	+8.0	15
2	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.6	10
3	Utrecht	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.5	7
4	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
5	Feyenoord	4	1	3	0	+4	+2.3	6
6	Twente	4	2	0	2	+4	+1.2	6
7	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	0	2	-3	+0.7	6
8	Willem II	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.2	5
9	Ajax	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.5	4
10	Groningen	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.8	4
11	For Sittard	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.3	4
12	Heracles	4	1	1	2	-5	-5.4	4
13	Nijmegen	4	1	0	3	-1	-4.0	3
14	Zwolle	4	0	2	2	-2	-5.9	2
15	Almere City	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.7	2
16	Heerenveen	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.2	0
17	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-10	-5.3	0
18	NAC Breda	4	0	0	4	-10	-6.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.