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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

AZ Alkmaar

S S T S T

1–1

Full-time

Nijmegen

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,5

Scored

2,7

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 10/12 matches

Win Ø 41%

40%

42%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

70%

50%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

42%

Average goals

3,6

2,8

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

21 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

15 Corners 1

0 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 12. · Nijmegen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	10	0	3	+13	30
2	Ajax	12	8	3	1	+35	27
3	Feyenoord	11	8	1	2	+14	25
4	Utrecht	11	7	2	2	+14	23
5	Twente	13	6	3	4	+2	21
6	Vitesse	12	6	1	5	-8	19
7	Nijmegen	12	5	3	4	-2	18
8	Cambuur	12	6	0	6	-5	18
9	Willem II	12	5	3	4	-5	18
10	Go Ahead Eagles	12	5	2	5	-5	17
11	Heerenveen	11	4	2	5	-3	14
12	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	0	6	+2	12
13	Waalwijk	12	2	5	5	-3	11
14	Heracles	11	3	2	6	-5	11
15	Groningen	12	2	5	5	-8	11
16	Sparta Rotterdam	13	2	4	7	-9	10
17	For Sittard	11	2	3	6	-12	9
18	Zwolle	12	1	1	10	-15	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	6	0	1	+10	18
2	Ajax	7	5	1	1	+26	16
3	Utrecht	6	5	1	0	+15	16
4	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+7	13
5	Go Ahead Eagles	6	4	0	2	+4	12
6	Twente	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Heracles	6	3	1	2	+0	10
8	Willem II	6	3	1	2	-4	10
9	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	0	1	+7	9
10	Cambuur	6	3	0	3	+2	9
11	Nijmegen	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Groningen	6	1	4	1	+1	7
13	Waalwijk	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	For Sittard	6	2	1	3	-8	7
15	Heerenveen	5	2	0	3	-2	6
16	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	3	3	-4	6
17	Zwolle	6	1	1	4	-4	4
18	Vitesse	5	1	1	3	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitesse	7	5	0	2	-2	15
2	Feyenoord	6	4	0	2	+7	12
3	PSV Eindhoven	6	4	0	2	+3	12
4	Ajax	5	3	2	0	+9	11
5	Twente	7	3	1	3	-1	10
6	Nijmegen	6	3	1	2	-3	10
7	Cambuur	6	3	0	3	-7	9
8	Willem II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Heerenveen	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Utrecht	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-9	5
12	Waalwijk	6	0	4	2	-2	4
13	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	1	4	-5	4
14	Groningen	6	1	1	4	-9	4
15	AZ Alkmaar	6	1	0	5	-5	3
16	For Sittard	5	0	2	3	-4	2
17	Heracles	5	0	1	4	-5	1
18	Zwolle	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.