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Eredivisie

Referee: Jochem Kamphuis

Nijmegen

T T T T T

2–1

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

0,3

2,0

Conceded

2,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-2,3

+0,0

This season — Eredivisie · 32/29 matches

Win Ø 30%

22%

38%

Points per game

0,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

59%

Both score Ø 60%

44%

76%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

0,9

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%

12 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

14 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nijmegen 17. · AZ Alkmaar 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	32	25	4	3	+62	79
2	Ajax	32	23	6	3	+50	75
3	PSV Eindhoven	32	21	9	2	+42	72
4	Utrecht	29	15	7	7	+14	52
5	Vitesse	32	14	6	12	+9	48
6	AZ Alkmaar	29	11	12	6	+7	45
7	Twente	32	12	9	11	+1	45
8	Heerenveen	30	12	6	12	+5	42
9	Heracles	32	11	7	14	-4	40
10	Willem II	32	9	9	14	-12	36
11	Groningen	30	8	11	11	+0	35
12	Den Haag	32	10	5	17	-21	35
13	Excelsior	32	8	10	14	-17	34
14	Zwolle	32	8	8	16	-26	32
15	Roda	32	6	12	14	-23	30
16	Sparta Rotterdam	32	7	7	18	-22	28
17	Nijmegen	32	7	7	18	-30	28
18	Go Ahead Eagles	32	6	5	21	-35	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	16	14	2	0	+43	44
2	Ajax	16	13	2	1	+32	41
3	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	3	1	+23	39
4	Heerenveen	15	8	4	3	+12	28
5	Twente	16	8	4	4	+8	28
6	Utrecht	14	8	3	3	+10	27
7	Vitesse	16	8	2	6	+7	26
8	Heracles	16	7	3	6	+7	24
9	AZ Alkmaar	15	5	8	2	+7	23
10	Den Haag	16	6	3	7	-2	21
11	Excelsior	16	5	5	6	-1	20
12	Roda	16	5	5	6	-2	20
13	Willem II	16	5	5	6	-3	20
14	Sparta Rotterdam	16	5	4	7	-1	19
15	Groningen	15	4	7	4	-1	19
16	Nijmegen	16	5	4	7	-6	19
17	Zwolle	16	4	5	7	-10	17
18	Go Ahead Eagles	16	4	1	11	-13	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	16	11	2	3	+19	35
2	Ajax	16	10	4	2	+18	34
3	PSV Eindhoven	16	9	6	1	+19	33
4	Utrecht	15	7	4	4	+4	25
5	Vitesse	16	6	4	6	+2	22
6	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	4	4	+0	22
7	Twente	16	4	5	7	-7	17
8	Groningen	15	4	4	7	+1	16
9	Willem II	16	4	4	8	-9	16
10	Heracles	16	4	4	8	-11	16
11	Zwolle	16	4	3	9	-16	15
12	Heerenveen	15	4	2	9	-7	14
13	Excelsior	16	3	5	8	-16	14
14	Den Haag	16	4	2	10	-19	14
15	Roda	16	1	7	8	-21	10
16	Go Ahead Eagles	16	2	4	10	-22	10
17	Sparta Rotterdam	16	2	3	11	-21	9
18	Nijmegen	16	2	3	11	-24	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.