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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

Twente

S S U S U

3–3

Full-time

Nijmegen

T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Twente Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

4,2

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 11/10 matches

Win Ø 47%

73%

20%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

55%

70%

Both score Ø 63%

55%

70%

Average goals

2,7

3,6

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,25 xG 1,55

68% Possession 32%

35 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 8

18 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

13 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Twente 4. · Nijmegen 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	11	0	0	+36	+27.0	33
2	Feyenoord	11	8	2	1	+26	+24.0	26
3	AZ Alkmaar	10	8	2	0	+21	+9.5	26
4	Twente	11	8	2	1	+14	+7.6	26
5	Go Ahead Eagles	12	6	3	3	+7	-6.8	21
6	Sparta Rotterdam	11	4	3	4	-2	-3.8	15
7	Excelsior	11	3	5	3	-1	-2.1	14
8	Zwolle	11	4	2	5	-3	-2.5	14
9	For Sittard	12	3	4	5	-8	-1.0	13
10	Almere City	11	3	3	5	-10	-3.9	12
11	Heracles	12	3	3	6	-17	-10.4	12
12	Ajax	10	3	2	5	-3	-2.2	11
13	Nijmegen	10	2	4	4	-2	-6.4	10
14	Heerenveen	11	3	1	7	-11	-6.0	10
15	Waalwijk	11	3	0	8	-12	-5.3	9
16	Volendam	11	2	2	7	-10	-3.0	8
17	Utrecht	11	2	2	7	-12	-9.0	8
18	Vitesse	11	2	2	7	-13	-5.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+16	+14.6	18
2	Go Ahead Eagles	6	5	1	0	+15	+4.3	16
3	Twente	5	5	0	0	+7	+2.6	15
4	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+16	+11.7	13
5	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.1	13
6	For Sittard	6	3	2	1	+3	+3.6	11
7	Heracles	6	3	1	2	-4	-3.6	10
8	Ajax	5	3	0	2	+3	+1.7	9
9	Nijmegen	6	2	2	2	+3	+1.5	8
10	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.7	8
11	Heerenveen	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.4	7
12	Volendam	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.4	7
13	Excelsior	6	1	4	1	-1	+1.0	7
14	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-3	+1.8	7
15	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-6	-4.3	6
16	Utrecht	5	1	1	3	-7	-4.6	4
17	Almere City	5	1	1	3	-7	-2.2	4
18	Vitesse	5	0	2	3	-6	-0.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+20	+12.4	15
2	Feyenoord	6	4	1	1	+10	+12.4	13
3	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.4	13
4	Twente	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.0	11
5	Almere City	6	2	2	2	-3	-1.7	8
6	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	+0	-4.2	7
7	Excelsior	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.0	7
8	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.1	7
9	Vitesse	6	2	0	4	-7	-5.7	6
10	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-8	-11.2	5
11	Utrecht	6	1	1	4	-5	-4.4	4
12	Waalwijk	5	1	0	4	-6	-1.0	3
13	Heerenveen	6	1	0	5	-11	-7.4	3
14	Nijmegen	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.9	2
15	Ajax	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.0	2
16	For Sittard	6	0	2	4	-11	-4.6	2
17	Heracles	6	0	2	4	-13	-6.8	2
18	Volendam	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.