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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kamphuis

Ajax

U S T S S

1–0

Full-time

Nijmegen

T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,8

This season — Eredivisie · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 44%

61%

26%

Points per game

2,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

70%

30%

Both score Ø 59%

70%

48%

Average goals

3,8

2,3

Scored

2,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

67% Possession 33%

19 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 3. · Nijmegen 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	24	16	7	1	+32	55
2	AZ Alkmaar	24	15	5	4	+22	50
3	Ajax	23	14	7	2	+42	49
4	PSV Eindhoven	24	15	4	5	+33	49
5	Twente	21	11	6	4	+19	39
6	Sparta Rotterdam	21	11	6	4	+15	39
7	Waalwijk	24	8	8	8	+2	32
8	Utrecht	22	8	7	7	-3	31
9	Nijmegen	23	6	12	5	+8	30
10	For Sittard	24	8	5	11	-10	29
11	Heerenveen	22	7	6	9	-6	27
12	Go Ahead Eagles	23	6	8	9	-6	26
13	Vitesse	24	5	8	11	-14	23
14	Volendam	24	6	5	13	-25	23
15	Excelsior	24	6	2	16	-37	20
16	FC Emmen	24	3	9	12	-22	18
17	Groningen	24	4	5	15	-24	17
18	Cambuur	23	3	4	16	-26	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	10	1	1	+29	31
2	Twente	11	9	2	0	+24	29
3	Feyenoord	12	8	4	0	+18	28
4	Ajax	11	6	4	1	+25	22
5	Sparta Rotterdam	10	7	1	2	+11	22
6	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	4	1	+10	22
7	Waalwijk	12	6	3	3	+10	21
8	Nijmegen	12	3	8	1	+9	17
9	Utrecht	11	4	4	3	+0	16
10	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	4	4	-1	16
11	Volendam	12	5	1	6	-7	16
12	Excelsior	12	5	1	6	-9	16
13	FC Emmen	12	2	8	2	-2	14
14	Groningen	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	For Sittard	12	3	3	6	-5	12
16	Heerenveen	11	3	2	6	-6	11
17	Vitesse	12	2	4	6	-11	10
18	Cambuur	12	1	0	11	-19	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	13	9	1	3	+12	28
2	Ajax	12	8	3	1	+17	27
3	Feyenoord	12	8	3	1	+14	27
4	PSV Eindhoven	12	5	3	4	+4	18
5	Sparta Rotterdam	11	4	5	2	+4	17
6	For Sittard	12	5	2	5	-5	17
7	Heerenveen	11	4	4	3	+0	16
8	Utrecht	11	4	3	4	-3	15
9	Nijmegen	11	3	4	4	-1	13
10	Vitesse	12	3	4	5	-3	13
11	Waalwijk	12	2	5	5	-8	11
12	Go Ahead Eagles	11	2	4	5	-5	10
13	Twente	10	2	4	4	-5	10
14	Cambuur	11	2	4	5	-7	10
15	Volendam	12	1	4	7	-18	7
16	Groningen	12	1	2	9	-20	5
17	FC Emmen	12	1	1	10	-20	4
18	Excelsior	12	1	1	10	-28	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.